Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil’s lower close on Thursday after reaching new contract highs indicates the market may have gotten ahead of itself despite an ominous turn in the Iran war. The market traded either side of unchanged early Friday and was holding near the low end of Thursday’s range. Divergence with technical indicators and the lower open interest than during the previous highs suggest a loss of momentum on the rally. There appeared to be no changes in the Iran was situation overnight, and the reports from earlier this week that the Trump administration was considering new a assault have yet to be verified. However, during the course of this wary, big events have tended to happened on the weekend, be it new attacks or breakthroughs on peace negotiations, which suggests that the yesterday’s setback in prices should be greeted with caution.
PRODUCTS
June RBOB extended its rally slightly early Friday to another new contract high, while ULSD, like crude oil, respected Thursday’s high. The EIA report this week showed US gasoline and distillate stocks were the lowest they have been for this point in the season in at least six years.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas was higher early Friday after a reversal higher on Thursday from a new low for the move. The weekly EIA gas storage on Thursday showed a net injection last week, but it was within the range of expectations and slightly below the average, and this may have been enough to stem the selling for a while.
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