MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain calls are mixed. No new news, US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is slightly higher. Holding gains on hopes of China stimulus. Gold is slightly higher. Bitcoin is lower. China announced a decade long driver to boost Cereal grain consumption. China produces 652 mmt of cereal grain but remains net imports of corn, wheat for feed use for 1.4 billion people. Russia increased missile attacks on Ukraine energy grid on Christmas day.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.81. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher while palmoil and soyoil were lower. There is no shortage of beans, and products (especially soymeal) supply. Market focus now will be on South America weather and crop estimates. By the middle of 2025 the weight of the increasingly likely 220 mmt South America soybean crop could offer resistance. Market will also begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes.
CORN
CH is near 4.48. Dalian corn futures were higher. The balance of World power should swing to the buyer by mid-year amidst Brazil-Argentine new crop supplies. Brazil should see rapid expansion of ethanol and meat production. Global trade will be from EU, Central America and non-China Asian buyers, Market focus will be on South America weather and crop estimates. By the middle of 2025 the weight of the increasingly South America crop could offer resistance. Market will also begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.34. KWH is near 5.44. MWH is near 5.89. Early 2025 will be about pricing in S Hemisphere origins as cheap freight helps offset their geographical disadvantage. Lower Russia’s grain export quota could offer support. Recovery of the economic health of importing nations is important. Deficit markets are making special efforts to enhance their own production and milling capacity. They should maintain a competitive world wheat export market. USDA January reports may not have a big impact on prices.
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