Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Jeff Rowe as EVP and COO
July 20, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mostly lower trade across the Ag space overnight with most contracts experiencing 2-sided trade. There were no deliveries against Aug-26 soybeans or soybean meal while deliveries against soybean oil were heavier than expected at 1,566 contracts. As expected healthy rains moved across key growing areas of the NW and central corn and soybean belt in the past 24 hours. This system is expected to pull east over the next 24-48 hours bringing widespread beneficial moisture to the central and ECB with temperatures holding at normal to below normal readings. Above normal temperatures will be restricted to the deep south, the far WCB and portions of the N. plains into early next week. Week 2 of the outlook shows above normal temperatures across the continental US with normal to below normal precipitation. Wheat prices have backed off despite ongoing hostilities between Russia/Ukraine disrupting Black Sea logistics. Energy prices are mostly higher in 2-sided trade. WTI Sept-26 crude oil is up $1.25 a barrel at $84.84. Spot RBOB is down $.01 per gallon while HO is up $.06. Europe remains hot with scattered rains in the east. Above normal temperatures for SA with moderate to heavy rain in EC Argentina and S. Brazil. A moderate recovery in the US $$ overnight as it holds within yesterday’s range. US stock indices are higher.
Corn:
Sept-26 and Dec-26 are both $.02 ¼ lower at $4.43 ½ and $4.66 ¼ respectively. Both having just fallen to fresh 2-week lows. Speculative selling yesterday cut the MM long position back down to 90k contracts. O.I. however was up just over 18k contracts. Old crop exports are up 24% YOY vs. the USDA forecast up 16%. Pace analysis would suggest the USDA export forecast at 3.325 bil is still 25-50 mil. bu. too low. New crop commitments have reached 340 mil. bu. matching YA while the highest in 5 years. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 64 mmt, vs. the USDA 63 mmt est. Harvest advanced only 3% in the past week to 70%. Ukraine’s Grain Association raised their 2026 production forecast to 32.1 mmt, up 3.2% YOY and is well above the USDA est. of 30 mmt.
Soybeans:
Aug-26 beans are up $.01 ¼ at $11.78 ½ while Nov-26 is down $.01 at $11.87 ¾ as both held within yesterday’s range. Aug-26 meal is up $1.20 at $315.30, also holding within yesterday’s range. Aug-26 oil is down 117 points at 67.18 pressured by the heavy deliveries. Key support rests at the July low at 65.59. Crush margins are off another $.11 ½ at $2.54 bu. a fresh 5-month low. Census crush from June-26 due out after Monday’s close is expected to show 218 mil. bu. were crushed during the month, up from 197 mil. in June-25. Bean oil stocks are expected to reach 2.113 bil lbs up from 1.894 bil in June-25. EIA data today will update green diesel production, capacity and feed stock usage. After auctioning off just over 500k mt of soybeans on Friday, China’s Sinograin announced plans to auction off another 501k next Wednesday to free up space for incoming US beans. US 25/26 export commitments are down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 20%. Old crop shipments to China held at 12.3 mmt while new crop purchases of 519k tons took YTD commitments to 2.78 mmt. There are another 2.829 mmt to unknown. New crop commitments spiked to 274 mil. bu., a 4-year high while up 146% YOY. Our parent company, ADM, reported they were expanding their North American crush capacity by 25 mil. bu., roughly 5% by improving 4 existing facilities in Frankfort IN, Deerfield MO, Lincoln NE, and Spiritwood ND. Updates are expected to be completed by mid-2028 to early 2029.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.05-$.09 lower. CGO Sept-26 is down $.08 at $6.55 ½, KC Sept-26 is $.09 lower at $7.21 ¾, while MIAX Sept-26 is down $.05 ½ at $7.06. Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian grain export terminal at the port of Taman, near the Kerch Strait causing “significant damage.” No end in sight as both sides continue to target grain storage, infrastructure and vessels. The Ukraine Grain Association raised their 2026 wheat production forecast to 23.7 mmt, up 5.3% YOY and in line with the USDA est. of 24 mmt.
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