Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2025
March 25, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end, Quarter end, USDA report day. Grain calls are mixed to lower. Open US harvest week weather could offer resistance soybean and corn. Wheat could follow. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher but near $68. Gold is lower. Israel attack killed key Hezbollah leader on Friday.
SOYBEANS
Last week, soybean futures tested 11.00 SK25 on fund short covering due to dry weather across N Brazil. Funds reduced risk before month end and US election nears. Overnight futures are lower on better South America weather. Mato Grosso Brazil could see needed rains for planting. Argentina could also see needed rains. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Soymeal was higher. USDA Sep 1 stocks report today. Trade est US stocks near 351 mill bu vs 264 ly. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest. East and SE harvest could be slowed due to Helene rains.
CORN
Corn futures are slightly lower. On Thursday. Futures could not hold gains on talk of increase farmer selling. Argentina could see needed rains with 10 pct planted. China Dalian corn prices are higher. USDA Sep 1 stocks report is today. Trade est US corn stocks near 1,844 mill bu vs 1,360 ly. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest, East and SE harvest could be slowed due to Helene rains. Most look for CZ range of 3.95-4.25 until 50-60 pct of US harvest is done.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are mixed. Lower than expected weekly US export sales offers resistance. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. USDA Sep 1 stocks report and Wheat crop estimate today. Trade est US wheat stocks near 1,973 mill bu vs 1,767 ly. Trade est US wheat crop at 1,966 mil bu vs USDA latest est of 1,982 and 1,812 ly. Market continues to be good sellers if WZ nears 6.00. Need higher Russia prices to move WZ over 6.00. Looks like they have enough supply to offer wheat at low prices through November.
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