Month End, Grains Up

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Month end. Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is near $77 on increase US gas stocks and disappointing China May factory data.

 


SN is near 12.17. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. China could see lower soybean import demand due to lower crush margins. US 2024 crop is off to favorable start and lack of new crop soybean sales has offered resistance. In May, soybean futures open interest was up on wet US and EU weather and talk of lower SA crops. SN-SX spread is down but still 20 cent inverse. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-400 mt vs 279 last week. BAGE est Argentina harvest at 86 pct, Crop 50.5 mmt vs USDA 50.0. Managed funds are long a record amount of Matif rapeseed futures.

CN is near 4.50. In May, CN has dropped from 4.75-4.47. CN-CZ spread has widened to -22. In May, corn futures open interest was up on talk of lower SA and Ukraine crops. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 600-1,000 mt vs 911 last week. Weekly US ethanol production continues higher. Stocks were lower than last week. BAGE est Argentina harvest at 30 pct and behind average. Farmers are leaving crop in field to help dry down. Crop is est at 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53.0. Bears feel US plantings ahead of average and crop ratings above average added up to lower prices. US drought index eliminated US Midwest drought for now.

WN is near 6.87. WN-WZ spread is -44 which is not bullish. Early US SRW harvest yields are higher than expected. In May, Chicago wheat futures open interest was up on talk of lower Black Sea crop. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 100-350 mt vs 224 last week. West EU is wet and cool. Crop est at 120.0 mmt down 5.5 vs ly and lowest since 2018. Argentina est 2024/25 crop at 18.1 mmt vs 15.9 ly. Australia futures were lower on forecast of west Australia rains. Russia weather next week will be hot and dry. Russia lacks clarity, France sunshine and US export demand.

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now