Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2025 Results
May 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are unch. Goldman Sachs suggest big rallies in stocks may be over for now. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower on higher US stocks and less concern about Iran supply. Gold is higher and record high. Brazil is getting rain. Argentina is getting rain. France is drier. Central Midwest weather is warm and dry. US HRW areas are dry.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 9.89. SF is near 9.98. SH is near 10.11. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. There is talk of China slowing new buying but did buy US Nov PNW and June Brazil. World vegoil prices are higher led by sunoil, sunseed and rapeseed. World soymeal prices are lower. Brazil July-Sep soybean exports were 25.2 mmt s 24.4 ly. US 6.0 mmt vs 5.3 ly. US exporters rushing to ship soybeans before US election and any potential change in policy.
CORN
CZ is near 4.16. CZ-CH spread has narrowed to -13. Dalian corn futures were higher. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. USDA announced 359 mt US corn to Mexico. US corn export prices are competitive vs Ukraine and South America. Brazil futures are higher. EU also has quality issues due to too much rain. Corn could find support early 2025 on increase export demand before SA harvest. Brazil futures are new record high.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.71. KWZ is near 5.82. MWZ is near 6.14. Wheat futures pulled by lower east Europe, Australia and Argentina prices and pushed by talk of lower Russia supply and higher Russia prices. East Europe and Baltic prices were lowest to Tunisia vs Russia. There is talk BRICS could open their own grain and currency exchange. There is also talk that Russia could sell wheat directly to 13 countries leaving US out of future sales.
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