Mixed to Higher Grain Markets

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to higher. SU is up 10 cents and near 15.72. SN is near 17.20. SX is near 15.52. SMU is near 406.0. BOU is near 73.79. CU is up 8 cents and near 7.50. CN is near 7.96. CZ is near 7.45. WN is near 10.76. WU is down 1 cent and near 10.89. KWN is near 11.46. KWU is down 1 cent and near 11.54. MWN is near 12.08. MWU is down 1 cent and near 12.05.

US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher, Crude is higher. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Copper and cotton are lower. Monday is a CBOT holiday.

US Midwest will be hot and dry the next 10 days. After that, EU model continues to be warm and dry into the first few days of July. NOAA 30 and 90 day forecast is warm and dry. Monday nights US 2 week forecast will be key to futures. EU is warm and dry.  Black Sea, Argentina and Brazil are dry. Canada and US HRS weather is improving.

US soybean export commit is down 2 pct from ly vs USDA 4 pct drop. Some could see final US exports 50 mil bu higher than USDA which would drop US 2021/22 carryout below 200 mil bu. Soyoil futures at 2 month low. 47 pct oil share of board crush also at 2 month low. Dalian SBO is down 5 pct, RSO down 6 pct and palmoil down 9 pct. Matif rapeseed 10 week low. Lower vegoil due to higher Indonesia palmoil exports and drop in Asian demand. US soymeal futures are above 50 DMA for first time since early April. Domestic US soymeal basis continues to push higher. Argentina soybean harvest is done with most est crop at 43 mmt vs 46 ly.

Corn futures are at 4 week high. US export commit is down 14 pct vs ly. Next 4-6 weeks US Midwest weather key to yields. NOAA forecast is warm and dry. EU and Black Sea weather is also dry but main focus is Ukraine exports or lack of. Matif corn futures also 3 week high. CN is near 8.00 with domestic corn basis higher. CN-CU spread near +47. Argentina harvest 37 pct with crop est at 49 mmt vs USDA 53. Brazil corn closer to 107 mmt vs USDA 116.

Wheat futures are slightly lower overnight. US wheat export commit is down 17 pct vs ly. There is talk Indonesia may be looking for July US SRW. Argentina plantings are 47 pct with dry weather. Domestic China flour prices are record higher. China paying over $500 to buy wheat for reserve. Some question China 135 mmt crop size. Chinese official are restricted to travel to access grains supplies do to Covid. China rejected a request to export excess supplies to help World wheat supply shortage. Black Sea export logistics or lack thereof continues to offer support to wheat futures. Importers still trying to defer demand and buy hand to mouth. Global weather and trade restrictions limits wheat price decline.

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