Mixed Outlook With Soybeans Up
Grains are mixed. SX is up 7 cents and near 14.68. Range was 14.48-14.76. SMZ is near 442.9. BOZ is near 65.41. CZ is up 1 cent and near 6.87. WZ is down 3 cents and near 9.00. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 9.65. MWZ is up 3 cents and near 9.68.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, sugar and cotton are higher. Coffee and cocoa are lower.
Soybeans are higher. Weather in Brazil remains favorable, China buying is absent and the US dollar is highest level since June, 2002. Argentina farmers continue to be heavy sellers of soybeans. Brazilian farmer selling remains slow on the lower futures. Asian markets were higher. Malaysian palmoil though was lower with stocks near 3 year high due to falling export demand. Trade estimates weekly US soybean export sales near 500-1,000 mt. Turkey and Russia relations may be deteriorating after Erdogan said he would not recognize the referendums and that Turkish banks would no longer accept Russia credit cards.
Corn futures are marginally higher. CZ uptrend since July, 22 5.61 low is still intact but futures are now sideways between 6.68 and 6.99. US domestic basis is strong due to lack of farmer selling. Ukraine war and Putin next step add uncertainty to prices. Approaching US harvest and slow export sales offers resistance. Slowdown in ethanol production and summer US travel also offers resistance. Trade estimates US weekly corn export sales near 400-850 mt. Higher US Dollar and recent drop in Crude prices from Aug 30 high near $95 also offers resistance.
On Wednesday, US wheat futures traded in 35-45 cent range but closed up 4-10 cents. Tech charts are turning higher. Overnight prices are now lower. Weekly US export sales are est at 200-500 mt, HRW is $75 above German Fob prices, SRW is $45 above French and Russian is still around $25 below French. US S/D especially HRW is tight and it is still dry in the US Plains. Black Sea uncertainty suggest limited downside risk in futures.
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