Mixed Grain Futures This AM

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SU is down 7 cents and near 13.68. SMU is near 403.2. BOU is near 61.07. CU is up 1 cent and near 5.97. WU is up 23 cents and near 8.35. KWU is up 21 cents and near 8.90. MWU is up 21 cents and near 9.51. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Silver, copper, cocoa, and cotton are higher. Gold and coffee are lower.

US 2nd week weather forecast is cooler and wetter. US Midwest will be hot and dry into weekend. Some question USDA corn yield near 177. Return to warm and dry weather in August could raise question about US soybean crop yields. Some relief in west EU with scattered shower. Temps still above normal. Hot and dry weather moves east into east EU and Ukraine and Russia.

GASC is back tendering for wheat under private offers. Yesterdays tender was cancelled with US origin only source offered and prices too high. GASC is looking for Sep 15- November wheat. Russia domestic wheat prices higher on lack of farmer selling. This despite talk of record wheat crop and Ruble near 8 year high. Matif wheat futures are higher due to Egypt open tender. WU resistance 8.61. MWU has lost ground to KC as Canada and US spring wheat crop weather has improved.

EU relaxed sanctions on 7 Russia Banks. This to help open Nordstrom pipeline Thursday. This easing concern about EU gas supplies. This also freezes up export facilities financing, payment for goods, freight, insurance and could make Russia grain exports easier. Putin said any Ukraine export corridor will need additional lifting of restrictions on Russia exports.

Corn futures are mixed. CU is now below pre Ukraine war low but is trying to gain on CZ on lack of US farmer selling and cancellations of delivery receipts. This despite US Dollar at 2 week low. This also despite fact Ukraine may not export 20 mmt of corn. Russia trade talks do not include Ukraine export corridor. Dalian corn futures are at 9 month lows. China estimating record corn crop despite warm temps, some region too much rain and drought in north. Corn could be supported by higher World demand. USDA est World corn use down 15 mmt yoy. Talk of lower EU corn crop could also increase their corn imports above USDA 16 mmt.

Soybean futures are lower again. USDA has not announced new US soybean sales. China announced June sow herd at 42.8 million up 2 pct from May but still down 6 pct yoy. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. China forecast record soybean crop despite wet regional weather and drought in north. Soybean imports may be as lows as 86 mmt vs USDA 90 mmt est with 250 million people or 17 pct of economy in lockdown. Palmoil higher on talk Malaysia monthly palmoil production could be limited to 1.5 mmt due to labor shortages and end users adding to coverage at 10 month lows.

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