Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 8 cents and near 12.87. SMZ is near 341.9. BOZ is near 56.46. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.28. WZ is unch and near 7.13. KWZ is unch and near 7.20. MWZ is unch and near 9.06. US stocks are marginally higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Most commodities are lower.
Tech speaking; CZ and SX found seasonal resistance near 5.40 and 13.00 WZ resistance 7.19. Dalian soybean and soymeal are higher. Corn, palmoil and soyoil are lower. China economy slowing. Could be offering resistance to commodity prices.
For the week, SX range was 12.71-13.08. Talk of lower US 2021 crop offset by slow demand. For the week, SMZ range was 335-345. Talk of lower global demand offered resistance. For the week, BOZ range was 55.80-59.67. Talk of lower global demand offered resistance. For the week, CZ range was 4.93-5.37. Negative USDA report offset by talk of lower US 2021 crop. For the week, WZ range was 6.71-716. Fact US export prices a premium offset by lower World supplies.
Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up harvest. US 2022 looks dry. N/C Brazil dry. N/E Argentina rains. Russia and US winter wheat areas dry for planting 2022 crop.
Big debate on final US corn and soybean yield. Early corn yields below expectations. Farmer not selling. Most will use USDA 176.3 corn, 50.6 soybean yields. Dry end to summer has some near 170.0 and 49.5. Next big USDA report is Sep 30 stocks report. USDA corn 1,187, beans 175. Cash corn strong.
Most analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout near USDA 1,187, but 21/22 near 1,200 vs USDA 1,408. Most analyst est US 20/21 soybean carryout near USDA 175, but 21/22 near 150 vs USDA 185. Most analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout near 565 vs USDA 615. Key imports? and demand.
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