Global Ag News for Oct 30

TODAY—FIRST NOTICE DAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans up 4;  Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil up 30 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 27 cents; HRW down 25; HRS down 23; Corn is down 23 cents; Soybeans down 27; Soymeal down $8.00, and; Soyoil down 85 points. Crushing margins are unchanged at $1.27; Oil share is unchanged at 30%.

For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 27 cents; HRW up 37; HRS up 16; Corn is up 17 cents; Soybeans up 27;

Soymeal up $29.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points. Crushing margins are up 37 cents at $1.27; Oil share is down 2% at 30%.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 103 yuan in soybeans, up 9 in Corn, down 5 in Soymeal, up 54 in Soyoil, and up 72 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 16 ringgit at 3,067 (basis January) at midsession on return from a holiday.

U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day time frame for the Midwest sees mostly dry weather for the region with temps below average for the first couple of days, warming to above average next week.The Southern Plains will be mostly dry over the next 6 to 10 days; temps will go from below average over the next few days to above average for most of next week.

South America Weather Forecast: The Brazilian growing regions has hit and miss rainfall for mostly the northern growing regions over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast continues with moderate rainfall in the northern areas with little rainfall elsewhere. The Argentine growing regions has mainly dry weather over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast sees limited rainfall for most of the growing areas with only some activity for eastern sections.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; sold 7,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; bought 1,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 31,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 186,000 Corn; net long 222,000 Soybeans; net long 88,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 81,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 945; Corn up 1,500; Soybeans down 11,200 contracts; Soymeal down 470 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,300.

Deliveries were 300 for Soybeans.

There were changes in registrations (Soybeans up 300; Rice up 357)—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 301; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 223; Rice 3570; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,195.

Tender Activity—Ethiopia seeks 400,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 22,800t U.S. wheat, 4,000t Canadian—S. Korean feed groups bought 264,000t optional-origin corn—Iran passed on 200,000t optional-origin corn—

For the week ended October 22nd, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 11% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 3% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year.

For the week ended October 22nd, U.S. Corn sales are running 168% ahead of a year ago, shipments 169% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 31% increase.

For the week ended October 22nd, U.S. Soybean sales are running 145% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 80% with the USDA forecasting a 31% increase on the year.

Mexican grains buyers booked deals to buy their largest volume of corn from the United States since last December, the U.S. Agriculture Department said; a development that could point to growing import demand from its southern neighbor; the sale for 1.433 million tons of U.S. corn occurred after Mexico’s most productive farmers warned they may not be able to meet demand with domestic supplies after deep government spending cuts.

The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for global corn (maize) production in the 2020/21 season, reflecting diminished outlooks for crops in the United States, Ukraine and European Union; reduced its global corn crop forecast by 4 million tons to 1.156 billion tons.

—The IGC raised its forecast for 2020/21 world wheat production by a marginal 1 million tons to 764 million tons

—Global soybean production in 2020/21 was forecast at 370 million tons, down from a previous forecast of 373 million tons, driven by crop downgrades for the United States, Argentina, India and Ukraine

Brazil is importing food staples including soybeans due to a rise in domestic prices, the President said; Brazil’s turn to imports is the latest disruption to the global food supply chain as soybean prices hover around four-year highs, China prepares to buy millions of tons of corn and countries around the world stock up on wheat and other staples to ensure supplies during the coronavirus pandemic; we are importing soy now because the price is going up,” the president said

Argentine rainfall in recent days helped temper losses to the country’s expected 2020/21 wheat harvest, which has been hit hard this year by dry weather, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said; the exchange maintained its forecast for the wheat harvest at 16.8 million tons, far below the 21 million-ton estimate at the start of the season, after months of dry weather hit the central farming region and continue to affect the north.

Argentina’s oilseed crushers and exporting firms are set to meet again with a key worker union in a bid to reach a deal over coronavirus pandemic bonus payments and head off the threat of strike action in the world’s top supplier of processed soy.

French farmers had sown 66% of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest by Oct. 26, up from 45% a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said.

Harvesting of grain maize was 88% complete, up from 77% the previous week.

 

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now