Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was slightly lower early Tuesday on news that the negotiations between the US and Iran could resume in Islamabad this week. The US military said it began blocking shipping traffic in and out of Iran’s ports on Monday, but there have been no reports of the US taking direct action against shipping to enforce it. Reuters said three Iran-linked tankers were seen transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, but the vessels were not heading to or from Iranian ports so they were not covered by the blockade. The IEA expects global oil output to fall by 1.5 million bpd on average this year from last year versus a forecast of +1.1 million bpd in March, and they expect a net surplus of 410,000 bpd in 2026, versus +2.46 million bpd expected in March. For the petroleum stocks reports, the early Reuters poll has an average expectation calling for US crude oil stocks to be -1.3 million barrels for the week ending April 10. Gasoline stocks are expected to be -2.2 million barrels and distillates -2.5 million. Refinery runs are expected to be -0.1% to 91.9%.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, gasoline and diesel prices are easier this morning on reports that US and Iranian negotiations could resume this week
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas extended its selloff early Tuesday and fell to its lowest level since November 2021, while the nearby fell to its lowest level since October 2024. The warm weather across the US has reduced late-season heating and likely allowed for an aggressive injection into US supply. For the EIA gas storage report, the early Reuters poll expectations calling a net injection of 49 to 65 billion cubic feet for the week ending April 10. The five-year average change is +28 bcf (range +15 to 57). The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts not as unseasonably warm as they have been, especially in the northern Plains and northern Midwest, which may allow for some more seasonal demand and possibly slow the injection next week.
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