Markets Position Ahead of USDA Reports

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher near $74. Our prayers are for those in LA, California effected by fires and Tibet affected by earthquake and freezing temps. CBOT closes early Thursday in observation of President Carter funeral.

 

rolled hay in snowy field

 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 9.99. SMH is back near 300. BOH is up near 42. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were lower. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops. Argentina weather is dry and warmer.. Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,231 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. US 2024 crop is est near 4,453 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 457 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 470. Trade est Brazil soybean crop at 170.3 vs USDA 169.0 and Argentina 51.9 vs USDA 52.0. One group estimates Brazil soybean crop near 175.0 mmt and Argentina 49.5.

 

CORN

CH is near 4.57. Argentina 10 day forecast remains dry. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,147 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. US 2024 crop should be near USDA 15,095. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,675 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 1,738. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 127.0 vs USDA 127.0 and Argentina 50.5 vs USDA 51.0. One group estimates Brazil corn crop near 128.0 mmt and Argentina 47.0. CH resistance is near 4.60.

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.40. KWH is near 5.53. MWH is near 5.92. Higher US Dollar is offering resistance. Drop in US HRW crop ratings vs November offered support. World fob index price in $20 dollars below ly at this time. Russia/EU exports will be less than last year but demand is down and Australia and Argentina exports could offset lower Russia/EU. Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,565 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should remain at 799 mil bu. 2025 Winer wheat seedings are est at 33.3 mil acres vs 33.4 ly. HRW 23.7 vs 23.7 ly. SRW 6.1 vs 6.0 ly. White winter 3.5 vs 3.5 ly. One group est US 2025 winter wheat acres closer to 32.7 with HRW 23.2 and SRW 5.9.

 

 

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