Grains Off to Lower Start Again

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 10.52. SMZ is near 374.6. BOZ is near 33.29. CZ is down 2 cents and near 3.99. WZ is down 8 cents and near 6.00. KWZ is down 6 cents and near 5.37. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Key support is near 26,226. Crude is lower. Financial markets remain driven by US election and increase Covid cases uncertainty. Grains are following.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 61 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 42 in Soymeal, down 88 in Soyoil, and down 24 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil market was closed for holiday.

The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest sees above normal temps with below normal precip. The 8 to 14 day forecast for the Midwest sees normal temps in the west with above normal temps in the east. Precip looks to be normal. The Southern Plains through the next 14 days looks to have above normal to normal temps with below normal to normal precip.

Brazil has no major changes as rainfall is seen in most of the nation at one time or another, but rainfall will be least frequent and least significant in the interior south. Argentina looks to be having drier weather now for about a week.

Showers will occur periodically throughout Europe with the far west and north seeing the highest frequency of rain and the greatest amounts over the next 10 days to two weeks. Rainfall of 0.30 to 0.80 inch and local totals of 1.00 to 1.50 inches to impact western parts of Russia’s Southern Region and much of Ukraine during the coming week to ten days.

China remains a slow buyer of US soybeans. Brazil supplies are tight. Argentina farmer is still not selling

Matif rapeseed prices are near 2 month lows. Dalian soyoil lower. Soybeans new contract highs.

Rumors China is a buyer of US DDG and Ethanol. World crop could be down 10 mmt. USDA WOB Chairman defends their China corn import 7 mmt guess. What if they cancel?

On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 SRW Wheat; sold 52,000 Corn; sold 25,000 Soybeans; sold 6,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 5,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 34,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 193,000 Corn; net long 223,000 Soybeans; net long 87,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 83,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,885; Corn up 16,400; Soybeans down 30,900 contracts; Soymeal down 2,480 lots, and; Soyoil down 115.

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