Market Begins To Position For January Reports

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Happy New Year’s Eve. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. China factory data prompts some optimism. CBOT grains will be closed Tuesday night and reopen Thursday morning.

 

Wheat fields at sunrise

 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 9.95. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops. Argentina weather is dry. World consumers are adding to coverage. Soybean deliveries were 109, soymeal 1,116 and soyoil is 425. US exports are near 1,050 mil bu vs 855 ly. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,230 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near 4,460 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could increase to 480 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 470. SH resistance is near 10.00 but Argentina dryness limits new selling. USDA announced 23 mt US soyoil to India.

 

CORN

CH is near 4.54. Dalian corn futures were lower. Argentina dryness limits new selling. US exports are near 604 mil bu vs 704 ly. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,105 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near USDA 15,143. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,525 mil bu vs USDA Dec est fo 1,738. CH resistance is now 4.60.

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.46. KWH is near 5.56. MWH is near 5.94. Lower Russia’s grain export quota could offer support. Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,538 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. Exports were 203 vs 155 ly. Food use 966 mil bu vs 961 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should remain at 795 mil bu. SRW 224 VS 274 ly. HRW 630 vs 508 ly. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures could be in a 5.30-5.85 range. 

 

 

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