Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
March Madness! Grains are lower. SK is down 13 cents and near 11.98. SMK is near 340.8. BOK is near 48.23. CK is down 2 cents and near 4.38. WK is down 3 cents and near 5.43. KWK is down 3 cents and near 5.78. MWK is unch and near 6.56. US stocks are higher. US Dollar.is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. GCI commodity index found resistance and profit taking near 580.
SK is near 11.98. Dalian soybean, soymeal soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. Some feel trade has priced in heavy Argentina rains. US China Ag attaché lowered China soybean imports. Like Crude oil, soybeans may be seeing profit taking as higher prices could slow demand. Weekly US soybean sales were 18 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,475 mil bu vs 1,815 ly. Most feel USDA could drop their estimate of US exports but could also increase crush the same. World soybean trade is est at 173.6 mmt vs 171.8 ly. US is est at 46.8 vs 54.2 and Brazil 103.0 vs 95.5. Weekly US soymeal sales were 243 mt. Total commit is near 10.1 vs 8.38 ly. World soymeal trade is est at 70.0 mmt vs 67.2 ly. US is est at 14.3 vs 13.3 and Brazil 20.1 vs 21.3 and Argentina 24.4 vs 20.7. Brazil soybean export prices are below US. Argentina soybean and soymeal prices are below US.
CK is near 4.38. Dalian corn prices were lower. Some feel trade has priced in heavy Argentina rains. Like Crude oil, corn futures may be seeing profit taking as higher prices could slow demand. Weekly US corn sales were 46 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,641 mil bu vs 1,375 ly. USDA goal is 2,100 vs 1,661 ly. Most feel USDA could drop their estimate of US exports but could also increase ethanol use. Ukraine and Argentina export prices are below US. World corn trade is est at 202.2 mmt vs 180.2 ly. US is est at 53.3 vs 42.2, Brazil 52.0 vs 54.3, Argentina 42.0 vs 25.0 and Ukraine 24.5 vs 27.1 ly.
WK is near 5.43. Snow, rain and cold temps is forecasted for upper US Midwest. S plains remains dry. Weekly US sales dropped 4 mil bu. SRW was down 8 mil bu while HRW was up 3 mil bu. Total commit is near 675 mil bu vs 656 ly. USDA goal is 710 vs 759 ly. World wheat trade is est at 212.1 mmt vs 219.2 ly. US is est at 19.7 vs 20.6, Russia 51.0 vs 47.5, EU 36.5 vs 35.1, Ukraine 16.0 vs 18.8 ly, Canada 24.0 vs 25.6, Australia 20.0 vs 31.8 and Argentina 10.5 vs 3.7.
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