Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2024 Results
April 30, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up. CN is down. WN is down. KWN is up. MWN is down. Stocks are higher, US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower on demand worries. Gold and copper are higher.
SN is near 11.80 on limited new news. SX is near 11.76. Heavy storms hit parts of the Midwest and east S Plains. Some est US soybean plantings near 15-17 pct. Weekend rains could slow plantings. Some est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 364 mil bu vs USDA 340. Same group est US 2024/25 carryout at 504 due to higher supply. Dalian soybean prices were lower. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were higher. The Argentina harvest pace, Brazilian crop size, and fund short covering will the drive markets near term,
CN is near 4.49. CZ is near 4.72. Strong domestic demand and slow farmer selling is supporting futures and spreads. US corn plantings could be near 20-25 pct. Weekend rains could slow plantings. Some est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,062 mil bu vs USDA 2,122 due to higher deamnd. Same group est US 2024/25 carryout at 2,245 due to higher supply. South America corn supply could be down due to Brazil weather and Argentina bug. Dalian corn futures were lower. It will be tough to establish a lasting trend, The EU, Black Sea and US crops are not done deals.
WN is near 6.10. KWN is near 6.52. MWN is near 6.95. KWK-WK is near +51 and near recent highs. US HRW south plains rains were less than hoped. Russia saw needed rains. Talk EU wheat crop could be near 4 year low, end stocks down to 12 mmt vs 20 ly could offer support. Some est US 2024/25 carryout at 740 due to higher supply. Wheat will be about weather (US, EU, Black Sea), with May a critical month.
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