March Coffe Near Unch

COCOA

March Cocoa was lower overnight but held above Friday’s low. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 77,000 metric tons for the week ending December 22, up from 75,000 the previous week and 73,000 for the same period last year. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began on October 1 have reached 972,000 tons, up from 747,000 last year at this time but below the five-year average of 991,000. Despite an improvement over last year, arrivals are not “stellar.” However, the improvement this week over the previous week is counter to trend. Traders expect arrivals to slow down as the dry conditions experienced in west Africa over the past few weeks take their toll on production. World Weather Service reports mostly dry and seasonably warm weather occurred in West Africa production areas last week, and very little change is expected through the next week or so, which is typical this time of year. No change in the Harmattan wind is projected over the next ten days, but that could lead to a subtle increase in afternoon temperatures. Indonesia’s weather the past few days has been much better than that of the previous two weeks. There were periods of sunshine and rain, which is normal at this time of year. This alternating pattern is expected to continue through the next 10 days, which is good for cocoa development. Brazil’s Bahia production areas will get some rain in the coming week, and improving precipitation should also occur in Ecuador.  ICE certified stocks increased by 39 bags on Friday to 1.387 million, which are still near the lowest since December 2003. The increase was negligible, but it was the first time this has happened in several months. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 2,179 contracts of cocoa for the week ending December 17, reducing their net long to 37,137.  

 

COFFEE

March Coffee was near unchanged this morning, continuing is consolidation in the wake of the move to all-time highs on December 10. The focus remains on Brazil’s crop situation, as the drought and extreme heat earlier this year has the traded concerns about a disappoint crop in 2025 despite a wetter trend that has emerged over the past couple of months. Safras & Mercado said Friday today that they expect Brazil’s arabica production at 38.35 million bags, which was not as ominous as the forecast from Volcafe  earlier this month that put it at 34.4 million. Minas Gerais continue to receive routine rains, which should be helpful to the upcoming crop, to a degree. Vietnam continues to get more rain than is needed, which can slow harvest. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 1,621 contracts of coffee for the week ending December 17, reducing their net long to 55,712.

 

up close coffee beans

 

COTTON

March Cotton gapped higher overnight and rallied sharply, to its highest level since last Monday. This followed a move to new contract lows last week which did not lead to a steep selloff. Low holiday volume may be exaggerating the move today, but once again, low prices appear to have attracted buyers. The dollar’s reversal lower on Friday may have sparked some short covering in cotton overnight, but the dollar has recovered today in the wake of the US Congress passing a spending bill to prevent a government shutdown. The fact that the export sales report last week showed US cotton sales for the week ending December 12 at 201,759 bales, an improvement over the previous two weeks, may have also fueled some latent optimism. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 7,032 contracts of cotton for the week ending December 17, increasing their net short to 29,257.

 

SUGAR

March Sugar is higher this morning, possibly finding support from lowered expectations for India’s sugar production. The Indian Sugar Mills Association says sugarcane yields are declining due to last year’s drought and this year’s excessive rains and that it could pull the country’s sugar production below consumption levels for the first time in eight years. This would also eliminate the possibility of India exporting sugar this year. They say production could fall to around 27 million tons from 32 million last year and annual consumption of around 29 million. The sharp reversal higher in the Brazilian real from record lows against the dollar last Thursday may have also lowered the impetus for Brazilian producers to sell for export. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 24,692 contracts of sugar for the week ending December 17, reducing their net long to 80,773.

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now