Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 6 to 10 February

The new week’s calendar is quite light on economic data with the exception of the UK, but will see peak volume in terms of the Q4 earnings season, with 93 S&P 500 companies. Statistically the US has Trade, Consumer Credit, preliminary Michigan Sentiment and annual CPI revisions; Q4 GDP tops the UK run, accompanied by the usual array of monthly business and trade activity indicators, BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Price survey; German publishes its delayed CPI data along with Factory Orders and Industrial Production, while PPI, CPI and credit aggregates are on tap in China. Japan looks to Wages, Household Spending and the Economy Watchers survey, and Canada has labour data. Both Australia’s RBA and India’s RBI are seen hiking rates a further 25 bps to 3.35% and 6.50% respectively, and there are plenty of Fed, ECB and BoE speakers, which will be of particular interest after last week’s strong US labour data totally wrong footed markets wishful seeing ‘dovish’ spin on the Fed, BoE and ECB meetings. Monday night brings the US State of the Union address, while Thursday and Friday see a special EU Summit to discuss the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Plan that is intended to act as a counter to the US Inflation Reduction Act, though divisions within the EU over the proposals run very deep.

In the commodity space, the EIA publishes its Short Term Energy Outlook, while a busy run of S&D reports will be the focus for agricultural markets, headlined by the USDA’s WASDE, accompanied by China’s CASDE and Brazil’s CONAB Agri and UNICA Sugar data, and StatsCan grains and oilseeds inventories. The EU’s ban on seaborne imports of Russian refined oil products comes into effect, and as has been noticed by some observers, it may be the middlemen and services providers (insurance, logistics) that feel the biggest challenges and squeezes as a consequence.

Corporate earnings highlights for the week as per Bloomberg News: AbbVie, Activision Blizzard, Adyen, AP Moller-Maersk, Apollo Global Management, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, Banco Bradesco, Bharti Airtel, BNP Paribas, BP, British American Tobacco, Brookfield, Brookfield Asset Management, Carrier Global, CDW, Centene, Chipotle Mexican Grill, CME Group, Credit Agricole, Cummins, CVS Health, Daikin Industries, Deutsche Boerse, Dexcom, DNB Bank, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DuPont de Nemours, Eaton, Emerson Electric, Enbridge, Enphase Energy, Equifax, Equinor, Fiserv, Fortinet, Fujifilm, Gartner, Hilton Worldwide, Idexx Laboratories, Illumina, Intact Financial, International Flavors & Fragrances, Iqvia, Itau Unibanco, KBC Group, KKR, L’Oreal, Linde, Mettler-Toledo International, Motorola Solutions, Neste, Nintendo, NT&T, O’Reilly Automotive, On Semiconductor, PayPal Holdings, PepsiCo, Philip Morris International, Prudential Financial, S&P Global, Sampo, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Siemens, Simon Property Group, SoftBank Group, Sun Life Financial, Swisscom, Thomson Reuters, Tokyo Electron, TotalEnergies, Toyota Motor, TransDigm Group, Transurban Group, Uber Technologies, Unilever, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Vestas Wind Systems, Vinci, Walt Disney, Willis Towers Watson, Yum China, Yum! Brands, Zurich Insurance.