Written Commentary
ADM Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
August 4, 2026
Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist
The Week Ahead Preview:
The final week before the end of the Summer holiday season has plenty to consider in terms of regular scheduled data and events, earnings from AI bellwether Nvidia, as well as numerous geopolitical tensions. Among the latter will be Monday’s announcement from the US on how it intends to apply maximum economic pressure on Iran, the renewed trade war between the US and Canada, and an outright ‘Nyet’ from Moscow to Ukraine’s proposal for both sides to stop bombing energy and shipping/port infrastructure. Then there is a China Politburo meeting that will see announcements related to stimulating the economy, as well as some statements on the US embargo proposals on Iran, with the planned meeting between Trump and Xi only 3 weeks away. The impasse in the Persian Gulf is now creating a lot of pressure in refined oil products and European Gas, as can be seen in the attached table, with product prices rising at twice the pace of crude, and European Gas up 135% as of Friday’s close.
U.S.A.
Fed’s Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole will get a lot of attention and perhaps take some attention away from Treasury Secretary Bessent’s quasi-QE antics last week. Typically, Jackson Hole is the venue for Fed chairs to steer markets on medium and long-term policy objectives, but Warsh has been trenchant in his refusal to provide guidance on the Fed policy outlook. He has tried to offer reassurance that the Fed will deliver on its mandate to maintain price stability, but as this week’s PCE deflators will highlight with headline seen at 3.6% y/y and core at 3.3% y/y, the Fed has, in principle, failed to get close to its target for more than 5 years. As such, that reassurance rings very hollow. The assumption ahead of this speech is that he will continue to avoid offering any guidance and instead use the speech to provide an intellectual rationale for his Fed reforms. The problem is that without a more concrete outline of how he proposes to change the way the Fed operates (which remains under evaluation by his six committees), simply critiquing the prior modus operandi for its rigidities and ‘faulty’ signalling makes him sound like any two-bit populist politician or keyboard warrior, rather than offering the intellectual heft expected of monetary policymakers.
Outside of the Personal Income and PCE data, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence is forecast to edge down to 90.2 from 90.8, with risks to the downside given rising gasoline prices and mortgage rates, a weak job report and the unpopularity of many government policies, above all the war with Iran. A close eye will be kept on the ‘labour differential’ that slipped to its lowest level at 3.1 since February 2021, and as ever beware the often sharp revisions. Durable Goods Orders are expected to remain robust with another headline rise of 0.5% m/m and core Non-defence Capital Goods Orders seen easing to 0.7% from June’s 1.2%. The second reading on Q2 GDP SAAR is expected to be unchanged at 1.5% q/q, as is Personal Consumption at a very robust 3.2%, while the Goods Trade Balance is forecast to narrow very marginally to $-100.2 Bln. House Prices, final Michigan Sentiment and various regional Fed surveys are also on tap.
Eurozone
The Eurozone will focus on the July ECB minutes, Germany’s Ifo and other surveys ahead of the end-of-week provisional CPI data from France and Spain. After a very divergent set of PMIs (Services dropping 1.3 pts to 48.5, Manufacturing up 1.9 pts to 54.1, Tuesday’s Ifo is expected to post a further modest rise for a fourth consecutive month to 87.2, but still off the 2026 February of 88.5. Much will depend on how survey participants evaluate the clear drag from the successive summer heatwaves against optimism about the latest set of government reforms. The ECB minutes will be of some interest, above all in terms of differences of opinions about the policy outlook, with most ECB speakers clearly open to a further rate hike, but many pointing to currently low risks of second round effects given wage growth remains well contained. However, most have stressed that the big unknown is how long the Persian Gulf conflict will last, and by extension the impact of high energy prices.
Asia
Outside of the Politburo meeting, China Industrial Profits are expected to remain robust, but the focus will be on the huge divergence between surging electronics, AI-related, and Pharma sector profits, and sliding auto, household goods, furniture and steel sector profits. Japan’s Tokyo CPI is forecast to show headline edging up 0.1 ppt to 1.9%, and ex-Food & Energy up 0.2 ppt to 2.0%, with continued pressure from energy prices, a weak JPY for much of the year and Services pressured by rising wage settlements. Australia’s monthly CPI is expected to slow further to 3.5% y/y from 3.8%, but the ending of fuel tax rebates points to a substantial upside risk, with core Trimmed Mean seen unchanged at 3.6%, and per se reinforcing the RBA’s current tightening bias. The Bank of Korea is expected to deliver a back-to-back 25 bps rate hike to 3.0%, with some BoK speakers underlining the need for a pre-emptive policy stance, which will have been reinforced by a further rise in core CPI, the strength of AI-related demand and exports, as well as rising house prices. Philippines BSP is also seen hiking a further 25 bps to 5.0%, with a strong rate hike case made by higher energy prices, the weakness of the PHP, and CPI way above the 2-4% target at 6.0% y/y (though falling back currently).
Canada
The renewed trade war with the US may distract from what is expected to be a robust 3.4% q/q SAAR reading for Q2 GDP, reversing the technical recession in Q4 (-0.9% SAAR) and Q1 (-0.1%0, which many expect to be ‘revised away’, with monthly GDP seen at 0.2% m/m.
Nvidia
Nvidia has long become the bellwether for AI-related stocks, and its recent underperformance relative to all other US semiconductor stocks a clear signal of market concerns about the AI investment-related boom. Its recent decision to cut back on some of its circular funding will be a particular point of focus in CEO Jensen Huang’s media conference, and what he says about the outlook. This may well overshadow results that will again likely beat expectations on both EPS and profits.
S&P 500 companies
There are 18 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: Affirm Holdings, Agilent Technologies, Anta Sports Products, Autodesk, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, BOE Technology, BYD, CIBC, Chaozhou Three-Circle Group, China Citic Bank, China Life Insurance, China National Nuclear Power, China Pacific Insurance Group, China Petroleum & Chemical, China Resources Land, China Resources New Energy, China Shenhua Energy, China State Construction Engineering, Citic, Cnooc, Crowdstrike, CXMT, DapuStor, Dollar General, Eoptolink Technology, Everpure, Fortescue, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Fubon Financial, Gold Fields, Gree Electric Appliances of Zhuhai, Guangdong Songfa Ceramics, Haier Smart Home, Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group, Heico, HKC, HP, Huadian New Energy, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower, Industrial Bank, Intuit, KazMunayGas National, Luxshare Precision Industry, Malayan Banking, Marvell Technology, Midea Group, Nari Technology, National Bank of Canada, Naura Technology, Nongfu Spring, Nvidia, Okta, PetroChina, Prudential, Royal Bank of Canada, Salesforce, Semight Instruments, SF Holding, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shennan Circuits, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, Sungrow Power Supply, Suzhou Centec Communications, Synopsys, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Veeva Systems, Victory Giant Technology Huizhou, Wanhua Chemical Group, Weichai Power, Wesfarmers, Woodside Energy Group, Woolworths Group, Workday, Wuliangye Yibin, Wus Printed Circuit Kunshan, Yankuang Energy Group, Yuanjie Semiconductor Technology, Zoom Communications.
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