Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 2-6 November 2026

Politics, Geopolitics and Elections

The US Mid-term elections are the main focal point for the week, even if the actual result, which is apparently on a knife edge in terms of the Senate outcome, is likely to be secondary to the initial speculative reaction. The speculation will centre on whether there is a re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict or a more concerted return to mediated negotiations; the implications for the AI investment boom, above all in regulatory terms; how the new Congress might end up in a disconcerting confrontation with the White House; and what the current Congress, in power until January, might pass in legislative terms.

While there has been talk about negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine, the evidence in terms of continued attacks on infrastructure and civilian areas suggests otherwise. Widening social unrest in Europe, with Germany also seeing cost-of-living protests at the weekend, some of which ended in violence, in addition to unrest in France, Italy, Spain and other countries, adds to the already very high concerns about France’s fiscal position and next year’s election.

AI Investment Boom and Market Risk

Concerns around the AI related investment boom after ‘disappointment’ at results from the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Samsung Electronics leave related stock indices teasing some key downside technical levels and put the focus on Apple and Qualcomm earnings this week.

Some argue that valuations now offer a more attractive entry point, but ultimately it will be the extent to which more speculative leverage needs to be purged, and how this impacts market-maker gamma hedging, which will dictate whether a deeper near-term correction ensues. Credit spreads will likely be of greater significance than UST yields in the short term, along with demand for the usual post-earnings rush of corporate issuance. The aftermath of the Binance crypto ‘heist’ will also remain in focus.

Economic Data and Central Banks

The week’s data run features the usual start-of-month run of PMIs/ISM surveys, a rash of US labour market indicators, Non-farm Productivity and Auto Sales, Eurozone CPI, German Orders and Industrial Production, and Japan’s Labour Cash Earnings.

These will have to spring some surprises to have anything more than a passing impact, sufficient to distract from the overarching national and geopolitical themes, and very fluid risk appetite.

The BoE and RBA head a busy run of central bank policy meetings. Both are expected to hike rates by 25 bps to 4.0% and 4.85% respectively, with Sweden’s Riksbank also seen hiking 25 bps to 2.0%, while Norges Bank is likely to hold at 4.50%. There are also a good many central bank speakers, and the ECB holds its annual Money Markets Conference.

Energy, Commodities and Corporate Earnings

As had been anticipated, OPEC+ held production targets on Sunday, with energy markets set for another choppy week as conflict escalation, and by extension supply-disruption risks, vie with a very opaque assessment of current and prospective supply and demand, compounded by high shipping and insurance costs.

The ADIPEC energy conference tops a very busy run of commodity-related conferences, which also sees the Canton Fair in Guangzhou, the China International Import Export Expo, the European Commodities Exchange in the Netherlands and Geneva Commodity Week, amongst others.

Saudi Aramco, Marathon Petroleum and ConocoPhillips head the run of energy sector earnings, while the agricultural sector looks to earnings from the likes of ADM, CF Industries and Mosaic.

Corporate Earnings Highlights

There are 144 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with a busy run of corporate earnings worldwide likely to find its highlights, as compiled by Bloomberg News, in: Acwa Power, ADM, Ahold Delhaize, AMD, Aflac, Air Products & Chemicals, Airbnb, Allstate, Amadeus IT, Ameren, AIG, Ametek, Amgen, Anglogold Ashanti, AP Moller-Maersk, Apollo Global Management, Apple, AppLovin, ArcelorMittal, Arista Networks, ARM Holdings, Astellas Pharma, Astera Labs, Atlassian, Atmos Energy, Axia Energia, Axon Enterprise, Bajaj Finserv, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Bayer, BMW, Becton Dickinson, BeOne Medicines, Bharti Airtel, Block, Booking, Bper Banca, Brookfield Asset Management, BT Group, Canadian Natural Resources, Cardinal Health, Cencora, Cigna Group, Cloudflare, Coherent, Commerzbank, ConocoPhillips, Consolidated Edison, Constellation Software Canada, Corpay, Cummins, CVS Health, Daikin Industries, Daimler Truck, Datadog, DBS Group, Deutsche Telekom, Devon Energy, DHL, Diamondback Energy, DoorDash, DTE Energy, Duke Energy, Eaton, Edwards Lifesciences, Emerson Electric, Enbridge, Energy Transfer, Engie, Entergy, EOG Resources, Estee Lauder, Eversource Energy, Expedia, Expeditors International of Washington, Ferrari, Fiserv, Fortis/Canada, Fox, Fresenius SE, Genmab, Great-West Lifeco, Grupo Financiero Banorte, Hochtief, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor, Humana, Idexx Laboratories, Intact Financial, Intesa Sanpaolo, Iron Mountain, Itau Unibancog, ITC, Itochu, KDDI, Keurig Dr Pepper, Kimberly-Clark, Kraft Heinz, Kyocera, Legrand, Leonardo, LG Energy Solution, Life Insurance Corp. of India, Live Nation Entertainment, Lumentum, Macquarie Group, Mahindra & Mahindra, Manulife Financial, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott International, Martin Marietta Materials, Marubeni, McDonald’s, McKesson, Medline, MercadoLibre, MetLife, Mettler-Toledo International, Microchip Technology, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Heavy, Mitsui, Mitsui Fudosan, Moderna, Motorola Solutions, MPLX, National Australia Bank, National Grid, National Stock Exchange of India, Nintendo, Novo Nordisk, Novonesis Novozymes B, NTPC, NTT, Nutrien, Oil & Natural Gas, On Semiconductor, Orlen, Orsted, OCBC, Palantir Technologies, Parker-Hannifin, Pembina Pipeline, Pfizer, Philips, L, Prudential Financial, Public Service Enterprise Group, Qualcomm, Realty Income, Revolution Medicines, Rheinmetall, Rockwell Automation, Royalty Pharma, Ryanair, Sampo, Saudi Arabian Oil aka Aramco, Sempra, SharkNinja, Shopify, Siemens Healthineers, Simon Property, Sony, Southern Co, State Bank of India, Sumitomo, Sun Life Financial, Suncor Energy, Swiss Re, Swisscom, Sysco, Targa Resources, TC Energy, Tenaris, Teva Pharmaceutical, Thomson Reuters, Titan, Tko Group, Toyota Motor, Uber Technologies, United Overseas Bank, United Therapeutics, Veolia Environnement, Verbund, Verisk Analytics, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Vistra, Vivmark Residential, Waters, Westpac Banking, Wheaton Precious Metals, Williams, WW Grainger, Yum! Brands and Zoetis.