Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 23 January

  • Asia Lunar New Year holidays, light data and events schedule to make for subdued start to the week: digesting December BoJ minutes, awaiting ECB speakers, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, US leading index
  • Japan: BoJ minutes underline December tweak as genuinely technical, but highlight alarm bells at Finance Ministry
  • Week Ahead: US, South Korea & Spain Q4 GDP top data run dominated by flash PMIs and other surveys; US PCE, Durable Goods, Trade; Japan Tokyo CPI; Fed in purdah; BoC rate hike expected; plenty of ECB speakers; busy week for US and international earnings
  • “Markets! The Economy! Crypto! Expert talk from Marc Ostwald (ADM ISI) & Ankush Jain, CFA (Aaro Capital) with host, Dr. Stu on the N@ked Short Club on Monday, January 23. Tune in from 21.00-22.00 hrs London time, on Resonance 104.4FM in London, DAB in Southern England & worldwide”


Those looking for some inspiration from today’s economic data and events schedule are likely to find themselves short changed, though the news that the government requested a suspension of December’s BoJ meeting casts the unexpected move to widen the 10yr YCC band in a rather different light. It underlines that any further tweaks to policy, above all anything that would suggest a gradual end to the BoJ’s ultra-easy policy, will create a lot of tension with government, and unsettle markets even more, and as Finance Minister Suzuki already conceded today, the nation’s finances are already under strain in the wake of the December BoJ policy tweak. The statistical run has only Eurozone Consumer Confidence and the US Leading Index, and there are a few ECB speakers, with Baker Hughes the sole highlight on today’s US earnings run.

RECAP: The Week Ahead – Summary Preview:
The new week’s schedule is replete with surveys, as is typical for the fourth week of the month, including the G7 flash PMIs, Germany’s IFO Business Climate and numerous other Business and Consumer Confidence measures, but the advance estimates of Q4 GDP in the US, South Korea and Spain will inevitably get top billing. Japan’s Tokyo and Australian CPI, UK PPI feature in terms of inflation data, while the US also has monthly Personal Income/PCE, Durable Goods Orders, New and Pending Home Sales and Goods Trade Balance. On the central bank front, the Fed enters its purdah period ahead of the next FOMC meeting, the Bank of Canada is expected to hike a further 25 bps to 4.50% with all eyes on whether it signals a pause. Elsewhere 100 bps rate hikes are seen in Colombia (to 13.0%) and Nigeria & Pakistan (both 17.0%), 50 bps in South Africa (7.50%), and rates are seen on in Chile, Hungary and Sri Lanka. In the commodity space, Brazil’s Unica is due to publish its monthly Sugar S&D report, while the USDA reports on US Cattle, Meat and Milk inventories, the EU issues the MARS Crop Bulletin, and there is also the Paris Grains Conference, The Lunar New Year holidays in China (all week) and East & SE Asia will thin trading for much of the week, while the govt bond auction schedule is dominated by the US ($120 Bln 2, 5 & 7-yr & $24 bLn 2-yr FRN), with Germany selling small volumes of 2, 16 & 23-yr, Netherlands 331-yr and Japan 40-yr, while Italy sells 2-yr and Inflation-Linked.

There are 88 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week, and across the globe Bloomberg News suggest the following are likely to be among the highlights: 3M, Abbott Laboratories, ADM, American Airlines, American Express, Ameriprise Financial, ASML Holding, AT&T, Atlas Copco, ADP, Blackstone, Boeing, Canadian National Railway, Capital One Financial, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Comcast, Crown Castle, CSX, Danaher, Diageo, DR Horton, Elevance Health, Freeport-McMoRan, General Dynamics, General Electric, Haliburton, HCA Healthcare, Intel, IBM, Intuitive Surgical, Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, KLA, Lam Research, Lockheed Martin, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Marsh & McLennan, Mastercard, NextEra nergy, Nokia, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Nucor, Progressive, Raytheon Technologies, SAP, ServiceNow, Sherwin-Williams, SE Banken, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Travelers, Union Pacific, US Bancorp, Valero Energy, Verizon Communications, Visa, Volvo, Xcel Energy.

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