Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 11 January

  • Very modest schedule of data and events as markets wait for US CPI data; digesting stronger than expected Australia CPI and Retail Sales, South Korea Unemployment, ECB and Norges Bank speakers ahead
  • Australia CPI: headline and core CPI rise more down to travel sector pressures and less to flooding impact, case for RBA pause weakens, even if rate hikes bearing down on housing costs
  • Attachments: Eurozone Inflation Expectations; World Bank GDP forecasts; NY Copper future; Electrolyzer pricing China vs. West; France vs. G7 peers pension spending as % of GDP; UAE virtual Energy Forum Agenda

EVENTS PREVIEW

With markets squarely focussed on tomorrow’s key US and China inflation data, today’s very modest run of data and events is likely to underwhelm. Statistically there are Australia’s CPI, Retail Sales and Job Vacancies to digest, with nothing more than Mexico Industrial Production and Brazil Retail Sales ahead. The events schedule has a few ECB and Norges bank speakers, while Peru’s BCRP is expected to hike a further 25 bps to 7.75%, and govt bond supply takes the form of Japan 30-yr and 10-yr sales in Germany and the US. The run of stronger than expected Australian CPI and Retail Sales data suggest that the RBA may be further away from a rate hike pause, even if some of the upward pressure on inflation was due to the recent flooding, though a 4.3% m/m in travel costs was a bigger contributor, though there was also evidence of the RBA’s rate hikes bearing down on housing costs.

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