Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 03 October

  • Light data & Events schedule a case of digesting RBA rate decision, UK BRC Shop Prices, India Manufacturing PMI; awaiting US JOLTS Job Openings and Auto Sales; ECB, Fed and other central bank speakers; UK and Austria to auction debt
  • US JOLTS Job Openings seen little changed after 3 months of steep falls, scope for small upside surprise, still way above pre-pandemic levels
  • US Auto Sales expected to rise, industry estimates suggest upside risks relative to consensus
  • Recording of today’s GI Daily Energy Markets Podcast click here

EVENTS PREVIEW

It being the second day of the working month, the data schedule is relatively light, with UK BRC Shop Prices, Turkish CPI and India’s holiday delayed Manufacturing PMI to digest, while ahead lie Brazilian Industrial Production and most importantly U.S. JOLTS Job Openings and Auto Sales. ECB, Fed and other central bank speakers are plentiful, while govt bond supply takes the form of GBP 2.25 Bln of UK 30-yr and EUR 1.3 Bln of Austrian 10 & 30-yr. In what might term a classic example of ‘sending a steady as she goes’ message, Australia’s RBA held rates at 4.1% as expected in Bullock’s first meeting as governor, with the accompanying statement a near carbon copy of the September meeting, continuing to suggest the possibility of a further rate hike, depending on incoming data.

** U.S.A. – Aug JOLTS Job Openings / Sep Auto Sales **

JOLTS Job Openings as expected to be little changed at 8.830 Mln, with August typically a weaker month for new job advertisements, though continued evidence of labour skills shortages suggest some scope for a rebound after 3 months of sharp declines from June’s 10.32 Mln. Overall openings remain way above pre-pandemic levels (see chart). The consensus looks for a rebound in Auto Sales to 15.35 Mln SAAR (from 15.04 Mln), though industry estimates suggest a reading closer to 15.5 Mln, and this despite the UAW strike and a further modest rise in average Auto Loan financing rates, per se reflecting continued pent-up demand following the extensive Covid disruptions.

Chart - US JOLTS Job Openings

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