Lower Start to Grains Outlook

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are lower. SU is down 17 cents and near 15.37. SN is near 16.90. SX is near 15.18. SMU is near 406.4. BOU is near 70.51. CU is down 14 cents and near 7.23. CN is near 7.73. CZ is near 7.15. WU is down 10 cents and near 10.36. KWU is down 8 cents and near 11.03. MWU is down 8 cents and near 11.70.

US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher.

This past week US Midwest was warm and dry. Some feel the US corn, soybean and spring wheat crop needed the drier and warmer conditions. US Midwest 7 day outlook is dry but temps closer to normal through June 30. South 1/3 US will be hot and dry until June 26 when temps moderate. This could stress US Delta soybean crop which will be needed for early soybean vessel loading.  Black Sea and Argentina is dry. EU could see some rain.

Corn futures are lower. Benign US Midwest temp forecast is offering resistance. Domestic basis remains firm as end users continue to try to add to inventory at a time US farmers are unwilling sellers. Key now is Impact dry weather will have on final yields and will funds buy corn against strong seasonal that corn prices make tops in late June and early July. Some crop watchers feel best US corn crops are in IA,WI,KY and IL. Worse MN,ND and NE. CU is below 20 and 50 DMA.

Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures are lower. Slower China demand for soybean and soyoil and lower Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures is limiting new spec buying. USDA rated the crop last week 70 pct G/E vs 64 average. Brazil farmer was a big seller of soybean last week making room for the 2nd corn crop. This weighed on Brazil soybean prices especially with slower than normal China buying. Some crop watchers feel best US soybean crops are in IA,AR,KY and LA. Worse MN,ND, OH and MO. SU is below 10 and 50 DMA and near 100 DMA support.

Wheat futures are lower. Paris wheat futures are lower. Unfounded talk of higher Ukraine and Russia wheat exports with improving US and Canada HRS weather and World buyers remain reluctant buyers near term in hopes for lower prices and exporters supply replenishment has weighed on futures. Long term World demand is forecasted to exceed supply. WU is near key 100 DMA support.

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