Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
by Steve Freed
Grains are lower. SN is down 8 cents and near 8.27. CN is down 4 cents and near 3.17. WN is down 2 cents and near 5.44. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Most commodities are lower. US Dollar is higher. Negative trade in May Crude oil futures raising concern about over supply, deflation and lower prices.
US farmers should increase corn, soybean and wheat inventory sales to 70 pct and new crop to 50 pct. Cash prices could continue to slide lower on concern of lower demand and if 2020 US weather is normal. Black Sea and north Europe remains dry. There continue to be concern about export logistics in Argentina.
US Midwest 6-10 day forecast calls for normal to below temps and normal rains. 8-14 day is warmer and drier. Rains continue in the south and east. US corn planting is est near 5-6 pct vs 9 average.
USDA estimated that 7 pct of US corn crop was planted versus 3 last week, 5 last year and 9 average. IL is 8 vs 11 average. IA is 2 pct done versus 7 average. NE is 2 pct planted versus 5 average. OH is zero planted versus 2 average. TX is 64 pct planted versus 57 average. US 2 week weather forecast should help plantings.
USDA estimated US soybean plantings near 2 pct done versus 1 average. AR is 8 vs 15. MS is 21 versus 29. US spring wheat plantings are near 7 pct done versus 18 average. Cotton plantings are near 11 pct versus 9 average.
USDA rated the US 2020 winter wheat crop 57 pct good/ex versus 62 last week. Declines were in OK, OR, WA, TX, NE, and KS. AR, IL ad Mo saw small improvements.
On Monday, Managed Money were buyers of 10,000 wheat , sold 22,000 corn, sold 5,000 soybeans, 2,000 soymeal and sold 3,000 soyoil We estimate Managed funds are net long 27,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 163,000 Corn; net short 3,000 Soybeans; net long 5,000 lots of Soymeal and; net short 10,000 Soyoil.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
