COTTON
March Cotton gapped higher overnight after a reversal from contract lows late last week. The export sales report came in better than expected last week, with cotton sales reaching 317,568 bales for the week ending January 9 up from 137,382 the previous week and the highest since November 21. Cumulative sales are still dismal, but the improvement was enough to lift the market off contract lows. This has been a pattern this year, where prices fall, sales improve, and the market sees a modest rally only to resume its downtrend. The dollar was sharply lower on Friday, which also improves the export outlook. US equities higher on Friday and overnight, but crude oil is sharply lower, so outside market influences are mixed.
COFFEE
March Coffee edged higher overnight and traded to its highest level since December 19. The trade is not convinced that recent rainfall in Brazil has come in time to help the upcoming crop. Western Minas Gerais saw light to moderate rainfall over the past four days, but the eastern half was dry. World Weather Service said the drier pattern may benefit many areas that may have become a little too wet in recent weeks. Rain frequency and intensity is expect to be notably lighter for a while. Indonesia rainfall could see locally heavy rainfall with pockets of flooding possible at times. The head of the Brazilian trade group Cecafe said Brazilian coffee exports to China are expected to increase in 2025 after a slowdown in 2024. Overall, the nation exported a record 50.4 million bags in 2024. However as reported last week, exports of green coffee in December were down 10.5% from a year earlier.
COCOA
March Cocoa gapped higher overnight and traded to its highest level since January 6, supported by a drop in Ivory Coast port arrivals. Arrivals totaled 34,000 metric tons for the week ending January 19, down from 48,000 the previous week and 41,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for 2024/25 have reached 1.191 million tons, up 24.7% from 955,000 (+24.75) from a year ago but below the five year average of 1.252 million. Ivory Coast farmers told Reuters that rains were scarce in most cocoa regions last week. This is their dry season, so dry patterns are not unusual, but growers have been pretty consistent in complaining, and the conditions seem to be taking a toll on production. Output typically falls off this time of year as the main crop passes its peak. The Ghanian food and agribusiness minister-designate told a parliamentary committee yesterday that Ghana has delayed the delivery of 370,000 tons of cocoa from the 2023/24 season, which is up from 350,000 that was reported by Reuters back in June. A very poor crop last year has forced them to push deliveries of presold cocoa into this year. World Weather Service reports scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred Friday through Monday along the coast of Nigeria and Cameroon. Ivory Coast and Ghana were dry. More showers and thunderstorms could hit coastal areas over the coming week to ten days, but most of it will stay close to the coast. A few cocoa areas may be impacted periodically. Seasonal rainfall can begin in early to mid-February.
SUGAR
March Sugar is sharply lower this morning on news that India has indeed lifted its ban on sugar exports. Reuters reported over the weekend they will allow 1 million metric tons of sugar exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (October-September). Talk that such a move was coming had pressured the market for the past couple of weeks¸ and confirmation sent the March contract to its lowest level since March 2023. This move follows a suspension of exports in October 2023 and is viewed as an attempt to support domestic prices in India. Trade houses have forecast India’s 2024/25 production to fall to 27 million tons from 32 million last year and below annual consumption of around 29 million, but some are viewing the move to allow exports as an indication that their production is higher than previously forecast. Last week, expectations emerged that Thailand would have more sugar to offer on the world market because China has banned imports of sugar syrup. The Ukrainian agricultural business association (UCAB) said the nation’s 2024/25 white beet sugar output is likely to fall by 5% to 1.7 million metric tons. Producers have said drought an extreme heat have lowered yields this year.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024