MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Russia launched massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine infrastructure.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.96. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil ended unchanged. Rains are forecast for most of Brazil. Argentina forecast is drier. US soybean export commit is up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 8 pct. Combination of higher US Dollar and less than expected weekly export sales offered resistance to soybean futures. USDA did announce 334 mt US soybeans to unknown believed to be China Sino Grain, US Nov NOPA soybean crush est at 196.7 mil bu vs 189.0 ly. Brazil premiums firmed on slower farmer selling and higher Real. CONAB est crop at 166.2 mmt vs USDA 169. Argentina crop rated 65 pct G/E vs 30 ly. Palmoil prices remain high due to seasonal drop in production but high prices is slowing export demand.
CORN
CH is near 4.42. Dalian corn futures were lower. US corn export prices are competitive to both SA and Ukraine. US corn export commit is up 29 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Combination of higher US Dollar and less than expected weekly export sales offered resistance at 200 DMA and 4.51. US farmer increased cash sales at 4.50 CH. This widened out CH-CK spread to -7.5. CONAB est corn crop at 119.6 mmt vs USDA 127.0. 56 pct of Argentina crop is planted and rated 51 G/E vs 43 last week and 49 ly. China est corn crop at 294.9 mmt vs USDA 292. Increase in Brazil ethanol use and drop in EU quality offers support to corn prices. Potential for record 2025 global supply offers strong resistance.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.58. KWH is near 5.62. MWH is near 6.02. US export commit is up 9 pct vs ly and USDA up 20 pct. Combination of higher US Dollar and lower than expected US expect sales offered resistance to futures. WH-WK spread widened to -9.5. Saudia Arabia will tender for 595 mt wheat. Appears Russia prices may be too high to compete. Argentina prices appear competitive. Argentina wheat harvest is est at 64 pct. Trade forecast World Jan-Apr trade below last year but SA pct of trade higher.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024