Written Commentary
ADM Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
August 4, 2026
CRUDE OIL
October Crude Oil was near unchanged early Friday, in the trading in the upper end of Thursday’s range. There has been no apparent letup in the bellicose talk between the US and Iran, but no significant increase in hostilities either. Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened the “toughest sanctions in history,” which could provide ultimate pressure on Iran to ease some of its demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran has withstood sanctions for decades. Bessent said he would hold a press conference on Monday to discuss the details of these sanctions. There are report that offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have declined and that prices have jumped this week as the US blockade has cut into shipments. Will that bring Iran to the table? Maybe, but in the short term means higher prices. There have been no visible crossings of the Strait of Hormuz by supertankers carrying Iranian crude since mid-July, according to data from Kpler. Iranian crude held in floating storage outside the US blockade zone is estimated around 80 million barrels, down from 105 million barrels before the blockade was reinstated, again per Kpler data.
PRODUCTS
The EPA announced on Thursday that it will end summer-blend gasoline requirements about two weeks early this year in order to boost supply and prices, and yet October RBOB made a new contract high early Friday, taking out a previous high from July 23.
NATURAL GAS
October Natural Gas was higher early Friday but still consolidating after falling to a contract low in early August. The weekly EIA gas storage report on Thursday was neutral to bullish, with last week’s net build coming in slightly below expectations and below average for this time of year. The report showed storage for the week ending August 14 at 3,169 bcf, +16 bcf from the previous week. This was below the average trade expectation of +19 and below the five-year average change for this week of +29. Storage was -0.9% from a year ago and +5.8% above the five-year average versus -1.0% and +6.4% the previous week. LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 states has reached 111.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a previous record of 110.7 bcfd set in July. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants stand at 17.2 bcfd so far in August, unchanged from July and slightly lower than a record 17.4 bcfd in June. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are a bit cooler than yesterday, with normal and below normal temperatures present around the Great Lake in the 8-14 day. Above normal temperatures continue to dominate most of the lower 48, but, it is getting late in the season for cooling demand have a big effect on supply.
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