India Announces Ban on Wheat Exports


Grains are higher. SN is up 12 cents and near 16.58. SX is near 15.12. SMN is near 413.4. BON is near 84.06. CN is up 15 cents and near 7.96. CZ is near 7.60. WN is up 51 cents and near 12.29. KWN is up 47 cents and near 13.29. MWN is up 43 cents and near 13.68.

US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. US inflation, Ukraine war and slowing economies especially US, EU and China adds to trade volatility and uncertainty.

Wheat futures are sharply higher. India announced a ban on wheat exports. The ban will allow sales on the books to be cancelled and sellers can declare force majeure. Wheat futures are also supported by dry US HRW, EU and Black Sea weather and wet US HRS and east Canada weather.  Informa est US 2022 HRW crop at 590 mil bu vs 749 ly, SRW 354 vs 361 ly and HRS 484? Vs 297 ly. Informa estimated US Wheat acres 47.3 vs 46.7 ly. SW 11.2 vs 11.4 ly

Corn futures are higher and following wheat. Some feel US corn plantings could be near 42 pct. Midwest forecast is wet this week which could delay corn plantings. USDA 177 corn yield could be too high. C IL corn basis is +50. Some feel 8.00 corn is not rationing demand and could be undervalued. Informa estimated US 2022 corn acres near 91.5 vs USDA March est of 89.5 and 93.4 last year.

SN is higher. Total US May-July soybean use will be record. NOPA April soybean crush is expected to be a record 174.4 mil bu. Wet NW Midwest weather could lower final US soybean acres. US soybean plantings could be near 31-32.  Informa estimated US soybean acres 89.0 vs USDA March 90.9 and 87.2 last year. Double crop soybean acres are est at 4.5 vs 3.7 ly. Prevent plant 2.5 vs 1.9 last year and 9.4 in 2020 and 17.6 in 2019.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now