Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch near 109. Crude is slightly higher and near $78. Israel is voting on ceasefire deal. China Q4 GDP better than expected. Sunday evening and Monday session closed for MLK holiday. Monday reopen 7 pm CT.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.24. Dalian soybean, soymeal were higher. Soyoil and palmoil were lower. Argentina weather is dry and warmer but rains are forecast starting Monday. US river levels are dropping and now ice is forming. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. Brazil farmer selling slowed due to higher Real. A Brazil Ag Consultant est Brazil 2025 soybean crop at 172.4 mmt. Rains are slowing early Brazil harvest. Weekly US soybean export sales were 561 mt. Total commit is near 40.8 mmt vs 37.3 ky. USDA announced 132 mt. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly. Key now is SA weather.
CORN
CH is near 4.76. Dalian corn futures were steady. Argentina forecast has showers starting Monday. US river levels are dropping with ice forming. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. SA farmers slowed cash sales due to higher Real. Rains are slowing Brazil corn planting. US is price competitive to buyers in nearby. Weekly US corn export sales were 1,020 mt. Total commit is 40.2 mmt vs 31.5 ly. USDA announced 135 mt US corn to Taiwan. USDA goal is 62.2 mmt vs 58.2 ly. IGC lowered World crop due to lower US. Some feel CH could be in a 4.60-4.80 trading range until more is known about SA weather/crop size. Germany FMD could lower feed demand.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.36. KWH is near 5.48. MWH is near 5.85. Cold US temps should not impact US winter wheat. Talk of higher north hemisphere 2025 crops limits new buying. Africa imports could slow due to higher USD. Weekly US wheat export sales were 513 mt. Total commit is near 17.5 mmt vs 16.1 ly. USDA goal is 23.1 mmt vs 19.2 ly. Argentina Dec and Jan wheat exports are lower than expected. Ukraine export to date are near 10.4 mmt vs 8.2 ly. IGC left World wheat crop unch but lowered Russia and raised Australia equal amount.
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