Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
Higher Indices Likely After FOMC Meeting
- September 17, 2021
- Alan Bush
- Follow us on Twitter @ADMISI_Ltd
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
The 9:00 central time September consumer sentiment index is expected to be 72.0.
Futures are holding up well despite all the commentary on when the Federal Reserve will taper its asset-purchase program.
Overall, the fundamentals and technical aspects remain positive for stock index futures.
A new move higher is likely for stock index futures after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next Wednesday is out of the way.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The euro currency is higher on news that the euro zone annual inflation rate was confirmed at 3.0% in August 2021, which is the highest level since November 2011 and well above the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0%.
Construction output in the euro area increased by 3.3% year-on-year in July 2021, following an upwardly revised 4.1% advance in June. This was the fifth straight month of rising construction activity.
Retail sales in the U.K. fell by 0.9 % in August, which was the fourth consecutive month of declines and was below market expectations of a 0.5% increase. This was the longest period of declines in at least 25 years.
Employment in Australia fell by 146,300 people in August, following the increase of 3,100 jobs in July. Full-time employment fell by 68,000 to 8,956,500 people, and part-time employment decreased by 78,200 to 4,066,100 people.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Traders are looking ahead to the September 22 Federal Open Market Committee meeting for guidance as to when the Federal Reserve will taper its $120 billion a month in asset purchases.
The dominant fundamental influence, which is the reduced pace of the global economic recovery, will reassert itself after the FOMC meeting is out of the way.
A new move higher is likely for the 30-year Treasury bond futures after the FOMC meeting.
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