MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. Crude is higher. Copper is higher on talk China could announce a new stimulus next week. China banned key military metals to US in response to new sanctions on China companies.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.96. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. Palmoil were higher. Rains continue in Brazil. Argentina is dry but forecast suggest showers in week 2. Brazil soybean export prices were lower on drop in China demand and favorable weather. Brazil Real continues lower. One crop watcher suggested best South America total soybean crop estimate could be 253 mmt vs 219 ly. India forecaster suggest Dec-Feb temps above normal which could stress their rapeseed crop. US soybean exports are up 16 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 8. Soybean board crush margins dropped to 3 month low.
CORN
CH is near 4.34. CH could be in a 4.20-4.40 range. Dalian corn futures were lower and made new contract lows. US total corn export commit front loaded and near 32.4 mmt vs 24.4 ly. US corn exports are up 31 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 1 pct. US October ethanol production was 460.5 mil bu vs 462.3 ly. Some question high production due to lower margins. One crop watcher suggested best South America corn crop could be 189 mmt vs 177 ly. Brazil corn futures though were higher. South Africa futures continued higher. China import corn demand is down which suggest US and Brazil demand will be domestic use and US exports to Mexico, EU and non China Asia buyers.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.53. KWH is near 5.47. MWH is near 5.94. Black Sea wheat prices are dropping looking for demand. Still, Russia winter wheat crop was rated 32 pct G/E and 37 pct poor. This is lowest rating in a decade. India forecaster suggest Dec-Feb temps above normal which could stress their wheat crop .US wheat exports are up 32 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 17. US HRW export basis dropped due to lower Argentina prices. World buyers remain on sideline with World crops looking mostly good. Egypt buying still and big unknown with Military now the buyer.
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