Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2025 Results
May 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SN is up. CN is up. WN is unch. KWN is up 1 cent and near 5.93. MWN is up. Triple witching hour with $5.5 trillion options expiring today. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch near $81, Gold is higher.
SN is near 11.62. Wet noon GFS Midwest weather forecast weighed on soybean futures. All other models are dry and warm for next week. US weekly export soybean sales are estimated near 375-850 mt vs 377 last week. New crop only 0-200. There were no daily soybean sales to China. Brazil soybeans are lowest to China crushers but US quality is better for China reserves. Soymeal futures may be near levels to begin to increase consumer 2024 and 2025 coverage. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower.
CN is near 4.41. Thursday noon GFS model was wetter for next week. All other models are dry and warm for next week. US weekly export corn sales are estimated near 700-1,200 mt vs 1,056 last week. Some est Argentina corn crop closer to 45.0 mmt, Brazil corn is cheapest to Asia buyers. USDA US acreage and stocks report next Friday. US farmers have slowed new sales but still have 2023 corn to sell.
WN is near 5.73. US, EU and Black Sea harvest is weighing on US and EU futures. Canada, Australia, Argentina and Brazil crops look better than last year. One analyst est Russia crop this week near 82 mmt reducing chance of a crop below 80 mmt. EU and Ukraine lowering prices for demand. US weekly export wheat sales are estimated near 200-500 mt vs 224 last week.
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