Harvest Wanes Reducing Hedge Pressure

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

Grains are higher. US stocks are slightly higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. There is new concern about Middle east tension. Gold, copper and silver are higher. Market volatility could increase as US election nears.

 

SOYBEANS

SF is near 10.05. BOZ is near 46.38. SMZ is near 299. Global vegoil markets are in a bull trend. Fact 2025 South America soybean crop could be 20 mmt higher than last year should provide pressure to futures February forward. US harvest is over and reduces hedge pressure. Trade est US soybean crush at a record 187.4 mil bu. Soyoil stocks at 1,539 mil lbs vs 1,607 ly. US export demand supportive. Large global soybean supply offers resistance.

 

CORN

CZ is near 4.18. Some look for nearby corn futures in a range from 3.90-4.35. US harvest is over and reduces hedge pressure. Fact 2025 South America corn crop could be 10-15 mmt higher than last year should provide pressure to futures February forward. US corn export commit is up 4 but could be near season high. USDA announced 78 mt US corn to Mexico Some feel Mexico has front loaded buying due to uncertain US Ag policy. US election adding to uncertainty to US Ag domestic and foreign policy. Hog futures were higher on higher demand while cattle ended lower on fund liquidation.

 

WHEAT

WZ is near 5.74. KWZ is near 5.72. MWZ is near 6.05. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures in a range from 5.50-6.20. Argentina and Australia supply offers resistance. Russia July-Oct wheat exports were 20 mmt and unchanged vs ly. This leaves 28 mmt to ship vs 34 last year. Normal 2025 north hemisphere wheat crops could offer long term resistance.

 

 

 

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