MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is slightly higher. Gold is slightly higher. Ukraine fired missiles into Kurisk region. For first time Russia fired ICBM into central Ukraine.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.04. Dalian soymeal were lower. Palmoiil and soyoil were sharply lower. Brazil and Argentina could see rains. Soybean bears are still looking for lower soybean futures due to record high South America supplies and lower China demand. South America markets are closed for holiday. Brazil and China signed to trade deal. SF-SH spread narrowed to -9 while SMZ-SMH remains wide at -5.00. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 1,000-1,600 vs 1,555 last week. USDA announced 202 mt soybeans to China and 226.2 mt to unknown. World vegoil markets are lower. Most selling linked to potential US tariffs and worries about future biofuel demand.
CORN
CH is near 4.41. CZ-CH spread narrowed into -10. Dalian corn futures were lower. Brazil and Argentina could see rains. South America markets are closed due to holiday. Some feel higher South America corn crop and large spec long offers resistance. Brazil and China signed to trade deal. Not a lot of new news. Matif corn futures are higher. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,00-2,200 mt vs 1,315 last week. Front loaded sales especially to Mexico may be causing logistic concerns.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.75. KWH is near 5.75. MWH is near 6.10. WZ-WH spread is back to -20 carry. Tech picture supportive. Will this trigger fund short covering? WH is up against 20 DMA. Rains improved US 2025 winter wheat ratings to highest in 5 years for last week. Higher south hemisphere supply is finding demand which is firming prices. South America markets are closed for holiday. South hemisphere export window is normally Dec-Jan. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 275-600 mt vs 380 last week.
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