Grains Start Off Mixed to Lower

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to lower. SX is up 1 cent and near 14.49. Overnight high was 14.65. SMZ is near 424.4. BOZ is near 65.28. CZ is down 4 cents and near 6.73. WZ is down 17 cents and near 8.42. KWZ is down 16 cents and near 9.18. MWZ is down 9 cents and near 9.29.

US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Some feel stocks and commodities are also lower after US President reassured US will support Taiwan if invaded by China.

Most of the lower calls are due to funds unwilling to buy grains or commodities before this weeks Fed meeting. Most look for the Fed to raises interest rates 75 basis points. Fed comments about pushing rates higher until inflation is down to 2 pct vs current 8.3 in negative hard assets. US 30 day weather outlook is also warm and dry which should speed up harvest.

USDA bullish report sent SX to 15.08. Lower SA prices pushed prices down to 14.33. Some look for SX in a broad range from 13.50 to 15.00. Next USDA key report is Sep 30 stocks report USDA soybean estimate is 240 mil bu vs 257 ly.

CZ also tested 6.99 after USDA report but dropped after USDA FAS caught up with export sales and with SA and Ukraine corn export prices below US. Some look for CZ range 6.00 to 7.00. Next USDA key report is Sep 30 stocks report USDA corn estimate is 1,520 mil bu vs 1,235 ly. Some look for a lower number. Key could be pct on farm.

WZ had a wild ride from 8.84 to 8.30 to 8.59. Low Russian wheat exports prices offered resistance. Dry US weather offers support near 8.30 WZ.

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