Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNG AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SN is down 4 cents and near 13.56. SMN is near 404.6. BON is near 50.43. CN is unch and near 5.99. WN is unch and near 6.17. KWN is unch and near 7.87. MWN is up 1 cent and near 7,95. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US consumer credit rose $23 billion in April vs March and up $309 vs ly. This is a new record $4,860 billion.
Soybean prices are lower in front of Weekly US export sales and USDA report. There is a better chance for south plains and east Midwest rainfall over next 5 days. Brazil soybean export basis is lower. Argentina export prices are lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. US May soybean exports were 94 mil bu and down 41 vs ly.
CN is unch but back below 6.00. There is a better chance for south plains and east Midwest rainfall over next 5 days. Brazil corn export basis is lower as harvest of record cop is starting. US end users have slowed net buying due to lower futures and talk of better US weather. There remains a negative futures bias due to lower US export outlook. US May corn exports were 199 mil bu and seasonally high.
Wheat futures are unch after steep losses on Wed. US May wheat exports were 57 mil bu vs 52 ly. Russia lower export prices offers resistance. US HRW export prices is $90 above Russia. US SRW is $5/10 above French. Australia prices are lower on good weather, higher Aussie Dollar and lower US wheat prices. Supply bears feel Russia end of season stocks could be closer to 30 mmt vs USDA 18. Despite talk of lower 2023 crop, Russia beginning 2023 stocks will be equal to last year. There is chance for better N EU rains.
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