Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 10 cents and near 12.54. SMH is near 349.7. BOH is near 56.97. CH is up 1 cent and near 5.78. WH is down 4 cents and near 8.10. KWH is down 8 cents and near 8.34. MWZ is down 5 cents and near 10.37. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher.
Dalian soybeans are lower. Soymeal, palmoi, soyoil and corn are higher.
US corn export export commit is 35.4 mmt vs 38.3 ly, soybean 37.1 vs 52.2, wheat 14.3 vs 18.5. There was talk of China buying 4 US gulf soybean cargoes for Dec/Jan and 2 US gulf from Jan. Some estimate China soybean imports 102 mmt with 29 US vs 36 ly, Brazil 65 vs 56 ly.
Russia and Ukraine tension higher. Half of Ukraine army at Russia border.
US south plains dry. S Brazil and Argentina drying. E Australia rains. EU normal. Russia drying. Brazil MGDS, RGDS and Parana drying. These 3 states account for 40 pct of Brazil soybean acres.
Argentina raised their soybean crop rating 21 pct to 88 G/E. To release 2 year Ag plan soon. Matif rapeseed and Canada canola futures higher. US did not announce biofuel mandates.
Matif corn higher. EU imports down stocks dropping. Ukraine corn works into SW and N EU. Some feel that that 5.60 CH may be a fundamental low if Omicron effect minimal. Argentina raised their corn crop rating to 90 pct G/E. Plantings near 31 pct done. China bought 5 Ukraine corn cargoes. Price plus freight a premium to US and highest in World. Same group feels wheat fundamentals not bearish and money flow weighed on futures.
Matif wheat futures higher on fact EU export pace too high. China buying Australia feed wheat. Jordan, Algeria tendering for wheat. S Arabia back for new crop? US HRW competitive. Brazil wheat millers unwilling to buy Arg wheat. Argentina crop rated 65 G/E. 45 pct harvest.
USDA report next week. US corn carryout 1,300 vs 1,493, soybean 380 vs 340, wheat 600 vs 583.
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