Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2023
September 19, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 1 cent and near 16.44. SX is near 14.88. SMN is near 433.1. BON is near 79.68. CN is up 4 cents and near 8.08. CZ is near 7.45. WN is up 2 cents and near 10.58. KWN is up 7 cents and near 11.05. MWN is up 4 cents and near 11.72.
US stocks are mixed. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. China is on holiday.
Key USDA report is May 12. US Midwest and north plains 7 day forecast is wet. Following week could be warmer and drier. US corn crop will be planted late. C Brazil is dry. Talk of higher US corn and ethanol demand should support prices. US Fed increasing US interest rates offers resistance to commodity prices. EU equities trying to recover from Citi fat finger sell order.
Corn futures trying find support near 8.00 CN. US corn exports are down 16 pct from last year. US farmer selling is slow. Consumer demand should support prices. 14 pct US corn crop is planted vs 42 ly and 33 ave. IL 7 vs 43. IA 9 vs 42. MN 0 vs 28. Brazil is dry with some corn crop est near 110 mmt vs CONAB 115. US prevent plant date starts May 20.
Soybean and soyoil prices have dropped 69 cents and 8 cents in 2 days. Market was overbought but lower South America supplies and higher demand for US crush and exports should support prices. 8 pct of US soybean crop is planted vs 22 ly and 13 ave. Rumors of Indonesia reversing CPO export ban weighed on World vegoil prices. Winnipeg canola futures lost 10 cents. Argentina soybean harvest near 50 pct. Crop rated only 16 pct G/E.
KWN has dropped 160 cents since April 19 high near 12.02. US exports ae down 19 pct ly. USDA kept US WW crop rating at 27 pct G/E and lowest since 1996. US spring wheat is 19 pct planted vs 46 ly. North plains forecast is wet. West Canada is dry East prairies wet and cold.
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