Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SN is up. CN is up. WN is. KWN is unch. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $82.70. USDA acreage and stocks report today. World watching escalation in tension between Israel and Hezbollah. US quarterly GDP growth lowest since 2022.
SN is near 11.56. SU 1110. US soybean exports commit is down 15 pct vs ly. US soymeal commit is up 11 pct vs ly. Trade est US soybean acres near 86.75 million vs 86.51 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 962 vs 796 ly with most stocks off farm. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Argentina oilseed workers announce strike. Argentina harvest done, crop est at 50.5 mmt vs USDA 50.0. Soyoil deliveries were 1,127 lots. US weather normal, China not yet buying US new crop soybeans and Brazil soybean export prices are below US.
CN is near 4.17, oversold and 4 month low. CN-CU spread widened to -9. Corn deliveries were 744. AI trading machines continue to sell weakness. Trade afraid to add weather premium despite talk of lower Brazil and Argentina crops and continue dryness in Mexico and SE Midwest. Argentina harvest near 55 pct with crop est at 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53.0. US corn commit is up 38 pct vs ly. Weekly sales were lower than expected and confined to central America. Trade est US corn acres near 90.35 million vs 90.03 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 4,873 vs 4,103 ly with most stocks on farm.. Dalian corn futures were higher and 1 year high. IGC raised World corn crop due to higher Brazil.
WN is near 5.57. Wheat rallied on better US export sales and fact futures are oversold. Chicago deliveries were 1,125. Russia weather is turning warm and dry, helping winter crop harvest but stressing summer crops, Trade est US wheat acres near 47.65 million vs 47.49 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 684 vs 570 ly with most stocks off farm EU exports up and end stocks down. New crop est and stocks are higher. IGC est World wheat crop down 2 mmt to 793.0. Lowered Russia crop to 81.8 mmt from 85.5. Saudia Arabia announced tender for 595 mmt.
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