Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher. CBOT will be closed Friday for holiday.
SK is near 11.93. SK range is 11.73-12.00. This week is USDA acreage and stocks report. Trade estimates US 2024 soybean acres near 86.5 mil vs 83.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 soybean stocks near 1,828 mil bu vs 1,687 ly. Some in the trade could see US 2023/24 soybean carryout to increase 30 mil bu. Drop in exports could offset a higher crush. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on China demand, US spring weather and Brazil final soybean crop size.
CK is near 4.39. CK range is 4.34-4.45. This week is USDA acreage and stocks report. Trade estimates US 2024 corn acres near 91.8 mil vs 94.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 corn stocks near 8,445 mil bu vs 7,396 ly. Some in the trade could see US 2023/24 corn carryout to increase 40 mil bu. Drop in exports and feed use could offset a higher ethanol production. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on global demand, US spring weather, Ukraine and Argentina export pace and Brazil final corn crop size.
WK is near 5.65. WK resistance is near 5.78. On Friday, talk of problems with Russia and 2nd largest Russia wheat exporters rallied futures. Russia and Ukraine increased attacks. This week is USDA acreage and stocks report. Trade estimates US 2024 wheat acres near 47.3 mil vs 49.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 wheat stocks near 1,047 mil bu vs 941 ly. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on global demand, US/EU/Russia spring weather and Russia export pace.
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