Grains May Be Technically Overbought


Grains are lower. SH is down 9 cents near 13.52. SMH is near 434.7. BOH is near 43.23. CH is down 6 cents and near 4.88. WH is down 7 cents and near 6.40. KWH is down 4 cents and near 5.99. Grain may be running out of new buying before USDA Jan report. Grains are technically overbought. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.

Over the next 30 days 65-70 pct of Brazil could see normal rains.  Over the next 30 days 45-50 pct of Argentina could see normal rains. Normal rains could fall across parts of Argentina over the next 10 days.

USDA will revise a bunch of numbers of Jan 12 and give us their first guess for US 2021 winter wheat acres.

Average guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 1,599 mil bu vs USDA 1,702. Range is 1,400-1,782

Average guess for US 2020/21 soybean carryout is 139 mil bu vs USDA 175. Range is 105-166

Average guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 859 mil bu vs USDA 862. Range is 837-900

Average guess for US Dec 1 2020 corn stocks is 11,951 mil bu vs 11,327 ly. Range is 11,590-12,305

Average guess for US Dec 1 2020 soybean stocks is 2,920 mil bu vs 3,252 ly. Range is 2,775-3,215

Average guess for US Dec 1 2020 wheat stocks is 1,695 mil bu vs 1,841 ly. Range is 1,585-1,827

Average guess for Brazil 2021 corn crop is 107.7 mmt vs USDA 110.0. Range is 102.0-110.0

Average guess for Argentina 2021 corn crop is 47.4 mmt vs USDA 49.0. Range is 45.0-49.0

Average guess for Brazil 2021 soybean crop is 131.4 mmt vs USDA 133.0. Range is 128.0-133.0

Average guess for Argentina 2021 soybean crop is 48.4 mmt vs USDA 50.0. Range is 46.0-49.5

Average guess for US 2021 winter wheat acres is 31.5 million acres vs 30.4 ly. Range is 31.0-31.8

Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,200 mt, soybeans 400-800 and wheat 250-500 mt

On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 wheat and buyers of 12,000 corn, 12,000 soybeans, 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 3,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 42,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 394,000 Corn; net long 264,000 Soybeans; net long 104,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 131,000 Soyoil.

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