Grains Lower as Rain Falls Across US

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are lower. SX is down 10 cents and near 14.02. SMZ is near 402.8. BOZ is near 66.23. CZ is down 6 cents and near 6.21. WZ is down 9 cents and near 8.08. KWZ is down 10 cents and near 8.74. MWZ is down 11 cents and near 9.11.

Good/needed rains fell across E NE and SW IA. It is raining in MO today. Rains today move into NE AR and W TN. Rains are forecast next week in S plains, Delta and SE. There are also rains in west EU.

US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa and sugar are lower. Copper and cotton are higher

Concern about China demand and rains across parts of US SW driest areas continues to offer resistance to soybean futures, Dalian soybean, soyoil, palmoil and soymeal futures were lower. USDA dropped US soybean crop ratings 1 pct to 58. Highest rated crops are in IN, WI, IL, MI and MN. Lowest rated crops are in KS, KY, MO, NE and IN. 21 pct of crop yields are above trend, 42 trend and 32 above trend. Some feel rains this week limits US yield below 50. One crop scout yield is near 50.5 vs USDA 51.9. Some est US August 1 soybean stocks near 454 mil bu up 72 vs ly. June 1 stocks were 202 higher than June,2021. Some look for SX range near 13.50-15.00 into US harvest. Some look for Argentina 2023 soybean crop near 50 mmt vs 44 ly. Argentina farmers faces less capital due to lower 2022 crop, higher cost and higher inflation (70 pct) with talk of currency devaluation.

Rains across parts of US SW driest areas continues to offer resistance to corn futures, Dalian corn futures were lower. USDA dropped US corn crop ratings 1 pct to 57. Highest rated crops are in WI, IA, IL, MI and ND. Lowest rated crops are in KS,TX, KY and TN. 24 pct of crop yields are above trend, 30 trend and 36 above trend. Some feel rains this week limits US yield below 170. One crop scout yield is near 173.0 vs USDA 175.4. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour is next week. Matif corn futures are near 8.65. CZ range could be 6.00-6.50.

Wheat futures are marginally lower. Higher US Dollar and talk of higher Russia wheat crop and exports limits the upside. North Hemisphere harvest continues over next 30-45 days. USDA estimated US winter wheat harvest at 90 pct. Drop in US SW corn crop could increase wheat feeding there. USDA rated the US spring wheat unchanged from last week and 64 pct G/E. US spring wheat harvest is near 16 pct done. Some rains across US HRW crop area could help soils for 2023 crop. Soils are driest in KS, NE, MO and SD. WZ range could be 7.70-8.50.

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