Grains Limping Sideways to Higher

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are limping sideways to higher into the US holiday weekend. CBOT grains closed Monday. SN is up 2 cents and near 17.29. SX is near 15.41. SMN is near 427.8. BON is near 80.27. CN is up 1 cent and near 7.66. 50 DMA is near 7.70. CZ is near 7.21. WN is up 8 cents and near 11.51. KWN is up 2 cents and near 12.31. MWN is up 7 cents and near 12.99.

US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, sugar and cotton are higher. US north Plains, Great Lake states and Canada will see more rains this week. US south plains forecast is drier. EU is dry. NE China is dry.

Wheat and corn are slightly higher and off Thursdays lows. Some estimate that there are 70 vessels in Ukraine that either need export or need to be loaded. Talk that a large hedge fund liquidated a large long 2 corn short 1 soybean potion may have been main reason for lower corn trade Thursday. At one point they were liquidating 2,000 contract every few minutes. Increase in US corn planting may have triggered the corn spread liquidation. Some estimate Brazil corn crop near 108 mmt vs USDA 116. Some feel USDA could be 8-12 mmt too high in SA corn supply.

Some estimate they there is 2-3 mmt of US CRP acres expiring in 2022 in which could see increase in 2023 wheat, corn and soybean acres.

US cash soybean crush margins remain positive. US August soybean demand could be record. Brazil soybean fob basis higher. Talk Argentina could increase export tax. Argentina rated their soybean crop 16 pct G/E vs 50 ly, crop 49 mmt vs USDA 53. China announced they would sell 500 mt soybean from reserves on June 1. Talk that a large hedge fund liquidated a large long 2 corn short 1 soybean potion may have been main reason for sharply higher soybean trade Thursday.

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