Grains Higher Overnight
Neutral USDA Report
Grains are higher. SX is up 6 cents and near 10.02. SMZ is near 325.2. BOZ is near 34.22. CZ is up 2 cents and near 3.70. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.45. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 4.75. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is marginally higher.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 58 yuan in soybeans, up 36 in Corn, up 77 in Soymeal, up 140 in Soyoil, and up 136 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 82 ringgit at 2,893 (basis November) tracking rival veg oils and concern over a slower than expected rise in output.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest see mostly dry weather to continue through the weekend.. Little to no rains are seen for most of region. Temps are seen running below average in most of the region. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has below average rainfall and average to above average temps.
USDA estimated US 2020 corn crop down 378 mil bu from their August guess. This dropped US 2020/21 corn carryout down 283 mil bu and World end stocks down 11 mmt. US carryout of 2,503 mil bu is adequate for demand. Private analyst estimates of the carryout ranges from2, 100 to 2.765. Next CZ resistance is near2020 high near 3.94.
USDA estimated US 2020 soybean crop down 112mil bu from their August guess. This dropped US 2020/21 soybean carryout down 150 mil bu and World end stocks down 2 mmt. US carryout of 460 mil bu is adequate for demand. Next SX resistance is near 2018 high near 10.67
Most feel US wheat futures are overvalued. USDA left US 2020/21 wheat carryouyt near 925 mil bu but raised World wheat end stocks 3 mmt to a new record 319.3 mmt. Key resistance is near 2020 high near 5.80.
On USDA Friday, Managed funds net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 11,000 Corn; bought 16,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 22,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 57,000 Corn; net long 195,000 Soybeans; net long 42,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 88,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.