Grains Higher, Market Waiting on CPI Data

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are higher. US Midwest and EU 2 week weather forecast is mostly warm and dry. SU is up 2 cents and near 13.65. SMU is near 402.4. BOU is near 58.99. CU is up 6 cents and near 6.00. WU is up 6 cents and near 8.20. KWU is up 7 cents and near 8.72. MWU is up 7 cents and near 9.26.

US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. Gold, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Silver and cotton are lower.

US inflation gauge CPI data today. Number is expected higher and continues highest in 40 years. Yesterday, noon GFS weather map added rains for central US Midwest. Current EU and GFS models are dry through July 23. Recent rains have improved crops in MN, IA, IN. SW Midwest and west delta remain warm and dry. EU weather is also dry. Russia turned off gas to EU on planned maintenance. UN, Ukraine and Russia in talks today to discuss Ukraine exports.

USDA est 2023 South America corn crop up 12 mmt. Normally, South America does not have 4 bad weather years in a row. Still, Argentina is dry. USDA continues to estimate China 2022 corn crop at a record 271 mmt despite less than ideal weather to date. USDA left US 2022 corn yield at a record 177. Next 3 weeks key to final yield. USDA estimate of US corn demand unchanged despite lower prices?

Soybean futures were down sharply. This despite USDA lowering US crop and US/World carryouts. USDA dropped US soybean acres, crop, but lowered exports and crush to keep US 2022/23 carryout near 250 down 30. USDA lowered US 2022/23 average soybean farm price despite lower supplies. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower due to demand concerns.

USDA basically gave the trade what it expected, Still some feel they are too high in World wheat supplies and too low in demand. USDA est EU crop at 68 mmt with most guesses closer to 60.

USDA increased N Africa demand only 200 mt and kept Middle east demand unch. In June, USDA dropped World wheat demand due to higher prices. This month they lowered World wheat demand despite lower prices? USDA est US 2022/23 HRW carryout at 265 mil bu vs 353 ly, SRW 136 vs 94 ly, HRS 126 vs 140 ly. White wheat 82 vs 52 and Durum 30 vs 31,

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