Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 10 cents and near 12.16. SMZ is near 316.4. BOZ is near 61.16. CZ is up 6 cents and near 5.22. WZ is up 9 cents and near 7.34. KWZ is up 11 cents and near 7.42. MWZ is up 7 cents and near 9.67.
US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower.
Dalian soybean and palmoil are lower. Rapeseed oil, corn, soymeal and soyoil are higher. More showers for US east Midwest. Brazil rains. Argentina, Ukraine and Russia are dry.
Trade est US weekly wheat sales near 250-500 mt, corn 700-1,600 mt and soybeans 600-1,400 mt.
US Sep NOPA soybean crush est at 155.1 mil bu vs 158.8 in Aug and 161.5 ly. Soyoil stocks 1,667 vs 1,668. There is talk of increase US soybean crush capacity for green fuel. Where will the increase soymeal go?
China PPI index up 10 pct. Fastest in 25 years. China coal prices record high. Power shortage into 2022. It is est that China soybean crush capacity down 20 pct but remaining capacity still above crush rate.
Brazil rains helping 2022 corn and soybean crop planting/outlook. Argentina corn crop improving. France corn harvest 15 pct vs 62 ly. Yields higher. Ukraine corn harvest 22 pct. Yields higher,
US HRW export price competitive in 2022 vs EU and Russia. Russia prices higher in Jan. EU wheat exports pace above est. Pace would suggest exports near 47 mmt. End stocks -2 mmt?
Most estimate US corn harvest to be near 55 pct. Yields higher. Soybean 65 pct. Yields higher.
SX set for 9 straight weekly loss. Resistance near 12.30 and pre USDA bearish report high. CZ set for first weekly loss in 5 weeks. Resistance near pre USDA report high 5.33. Corn needs demand. WZ set for first weekly high close in 5 weeks. Resistance near 7.40. MWZ making new contract highs.
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