Grains Are Mixed to Lower Early

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to lower. SN is unch. CN is unch and near 4.49. WN is down. KWN is down. MWN is down. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch and near $75. Gold is lower. Year of election saw EU parliament shift to right. France President called for new election. Besides US, India and Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, Taiwan and Pakistan will also have elections.

SN is near 11.76. Soybeans and wheat may have seen money flowing out of their markets after US jobs report was hotter than expected. US Dollar quickly rallied and US stocks sold off. On Thursday, soybean futures rallied on talk Brazil may approve a new income tax. Farmers stopped selling soybeans on the news. Soybean and soymeal bears look at increase World 2024 supply and slow China buying negative to prices. Bulls still are watching US, EU and Black Sea weather as supportive. One group raised their US 2023/24 carryout 60 mil bu due to lower exports. May Malaysian palmoil production was up 13 pct mom, exports up 12 pct and stocks up.5 pct.

CN is near 4.49. Like soybeans, corn rallied last week on news Brazil will try to pass a new income tax. Brazil farmers stopped selling until more is known about the tax. Good US corn planting season limits the upside in prices. Talk of warmer and drier US, China, Mexico and Black Sea summer also limits the downside. One group lowered their US 2023/24 carryout 76 mil bu due to higher domestic use. They still est 2024/25 at 2,266.

WN is near 6.25. More new crop wheat moving into pipeline offered resistance. Turkey announced ban on wheat imports from June 21-October 15. Ban will impact Russia the most. Some feel talk of lower Black Sea crops may be priced in futures. Still if Russia crop is down 11-13 mmt, future wheat future prices should eventually move higher. Some feel key WZ support is near 6.50. One group raised their US 2023/24 carryout 46 mil bu due to higher crop.

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