Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2023
September 19, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 17 cents and near 17.02. SX is near 15.37. SMN is near 434,2. BON is near 87.45. BOK is near 91.25. CN is up 3 cents and near 8.17. CZ is near 7.55. WN is up 16 cents and near 11.02. KWN is up 10 cents and near 11.51. MWN is up 11 cents and near 12.02.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Wall Street Journal headline: Corn and soybean prices near record adding to food inflation. UN estimated World 2022 food prices up 23 pct. 2021 was up 31 pct. Global food prices were up before Russia invaded Ukraine. Lower South America crops, increase US biofuel demand and now US weather slowing early planting pace continues to support higher prices and highest since US 2012 drought.
US Midwest, north plains, Delta and east south plains April 29-May 6 forecast is wet. Some fear late planted US corn crop could drop final yield below 180 and planted acres down 1 mil.
Ukraine war is lowering their corn export outlook. China bought 1.1 mmt US corn this week and could buy more to replace unshipped Ukraine corn. C Brazil dry. Arg corn crop 19 pct G/E. Harvest 46 percent. US corn export commit 2,264 mil bu. USDA goal 2,500. Could be 2,700.
Soon World wheat import demand is expected to increase. New crop Matif new highs as more feel lower Black Sea exports could shift demand to EU. US HRW crop could be lower. India and Pakistan is hot and India wheat crop is in decline.
US soybean export commit is equal to USDA goal. Could increase 100 mil bu. Nearby US soybean board crush at 259. Oil share record at 51.7 pct. China to sell 500 mt reserve soybeans May 6. Lower Brazil Real increased farmer selling. Arg soybean crop 16 pct G/E. Harvest 46 pct.
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